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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPackets - Council Packets (140)Council Meeting Special Session December 10, 2014 1 2 La Cholla & Naranja Southwest and Northwest Town Council December 10, 2014 3 Request General Plan Map Amendment Adopt Special Area Policies Delete the Significant Resource Area Town of Oro Valley La Cholla Blvd Naranja Drive Shannon Road Lambert Lane IRHS Casas 1A 1B The purpose of tonight's hearing is to consider two amendments to the Town’s General Plan. Specifically, consider a change to the land uses along La Cholla Boulevard, an important roadway in Oro Valley. 186 acres on southwest corner – Agenda Item 1A 8 acres on northwest corner – Agenda Item 1B Although these are two separate cases, we are combining the presentations on them. At the conclusion of the public hearing, a separate vote will be necessary on each case. 1st General Plan Map Amendment to Master Planned Community with a variety of residential and non-residential land uses. 2nd Adopt Special Area Policies to implement the proposed MPC 3rd Delete Significant Resource Area Great opportunity to look at this large of a property comprehensively versus piecemeal planning of small parcels and individual requests 4 Current & Proposed General Plan Town of Oro Valley Current Proposed MPC Current (Variety low to moderate) Proposed Rural Low Density (0-0.3 homes / acre) Master Planned Community Low Density 1 (0.4 -1.2 homes / acre) Deletion of the Significant Resource Area Medium Density (2.1 – 5 homes / acre) Special Area Policies Public Semi-Public Commercial Open Space Significant Resource Area Master Planned Community is a land use designation in the General Plan intended for the planning of large properties and enables a higher level of specificity to address compatibility with the area. 5 I. Concept Plan Neighborhood Commercial Low Density Medium Density Townhomes / Senior Care / Medium Density Recreational Area Town of Oro Valley The applicant has proposed a concept plan which defines the land uses within the MPC Neighborhood Commercial at Naranja and La Cholla and at Lambert and La Cholla (allows back up medium density residential) Low Density on the western boundary as a transition to the rural-low density areas to the west. The southern / central area is now restricted to medium density residential uses only. The proposed apartments were removed by the applicant from the center area along La Cholla Replaced with townhomes restricted to 12 homes per acre. Other uses permitted in this area include senior care and medium density residential. Recreational area on 8 acres on La Cholla and 3.5 acres on Cross Road. Town has determined they are too small for public parks and therefore should remain private. A 200 foot open space buffer has been included along the western boundary A 300 foot one story residential building height restriction is provided on the west and has now been extended along the south. Applicant will explain more… 6 II. Special Area Policies General Plan “General Nature: As it’s name suggests, the general plan provides guidance for the future, particularly regarding growth and development. More precise direction is provided in…the zoning code” Town of Oro Valley Just a little background on Special Area Policies Help add shape to the master planned community designation, but are not detailed zoning All of the existing MPC’s have Special Area Policies which address things like building heights, maximum number of homes and mitigation measures like open space buffers. So, a Special Area Policy bridges the gap between the big picture policy level of the General Plan, without getting into the details of zoning On the screen is an excerpt from the General Plan. As you can see, the general plan is general in nature and provides policy guidance which informs zoning decisions which will follow. Special Area Policies provide the opportunity to address compatibility and mitigation At zoning level, that is where we have the opportunity to address design issues, specific uses, setbacks and other project details 7 II. Special Area Policies Requires Master Planning Unit Cap: 778 units Land uses Recreational Area Mitigation measures Town of Oro Valley I’ll briefly summarize the proposed Special Area Policies for this project: Requires master planning at the rezoning stage through the use of a Planned Area Development PAD zoning. Important to be considered as a single rezoning case (Master Land Use, Drainage, Traffic development phasing signage and thematic elements Caps units at 778 for the entire property. (Last hearing: Development Potential 1040) A number of policies establish land use proposal -Medium density back up designation to commercial -Clarifies no apartments, allows townhomes not to exceed 12 homes/acre -Allows Senior Care and medium density residential on center parcels Clarifies recreational area credit for the two recreational areas against Zoning Code requirements Establishes mitigation measures -200 foot open Space buffer -300 foot one story residential building height limit - Expanded 8 III. Significant Resource Area Lowest density in range Incorporate environmental mitigation strategies Town of Oro Valley Part of the application is to delete the Significant Resource Area designation. SRA was a precursor to the Towns comprehensive ESL regulations. Retention of the SRA will result in land uses developing at the lowest end of the density range (e.g medium 2.1) which does have a reduced environmental impact. Retention of the Significant Resource Area would also require environmental mitigation strategies, although this is something already covered under the Town’s ESL regulations. Beyond the density limitation, SRA does not add any additional measure of environmental protection when compared to the ESL regulations. Based on these factors, the Commission has recommended it’s removal. 9 Environmentally Sensitive Lands 95% Open Space (Critical Resource Area) 66% Open Space (RMA Tier 1) 25% Open Space (RMA Tier 2) Town of Oro Valley As part of a MGPA, we look at the change in ESL Conservation Categories. The site contains 3 categories 95% Conservation – Washes and Riparian (Critical Resource Area) Highest resource value 66% Conservation - Lower resources and lower growth expectations (RMA Tier 1) 25% Conservation – Lower resources and moderate growth expectations The amendment if approved will still protect the washes at a 95% conservation rate The remainder will be conserved at a 25% conservation rate. 10 Amendment Evaluation The disposition of the General Plan Amendment shall be based on consistency with the vision, goals and policies of the General Plan, with special emphasis on compliance with the following criteria: -Conditions in the community have changed -Socio-economic betterment / community and environmental compatibility -Reflects market demand leading to community acceptance -Will not adversely impact community without mitigating impacts Town of Oro Valley The applicant has the burden demonstrating that the amendments meet two measures: The amendments are consistent with the Vision, Goals and Policies of the General Plan The amendments are compliant with the four review criteria I’ll cover vision goals and notable policies first and then I will address staffs comments relative to compliance with the criteria 11 General Plan Vision To be a well planned community that uses its resources to balance the needs of today against the potential impacts to future generations. Oro Valley’s lifestyle is defined by the highest standard of environmental integrity, education, infrastructure, services, and public safety. It is a community of people working together to create the Town’s future with a government that is responsive to residents and ensures the long-term financial stability of the Town. Town of Oro Valley The Vision Statement is a reminder balance need of entire community and greater good while trying to assure impacts to a local area are minimized The amendment provides for an efficient use of planned infrastructure and addresses the socio-economic goals through the provision of nearby services in proximity to residential and therefore is consistent with the Vision Statement 12 Notable General Plan Policies Policy 1.4.3 The Town reasonably wishes to be satisfied that sufficient demand exists before authorizing a higher land use intensity than the present zoning permits. Policy 1.3.2 The Town shall encourage new development to locate uses that depend on convenient transportation access (e.g. higher density residential and commercial) near major arterial streets.   Policy 1.2.1 The Town shall maintain Oro Valley’s predominately low-density character while considering the needs of financial stability and infrastructure efficiency. Policy 1.3.1 The Town shall encourage the location of residential neighborhoods close to activity centers compatible with residential uses, and vice versa. Town of Oro Valley I wanted to emphasize the 2nd and 3rd policies 2nd: This policy really looks at focusing density and intensity along or near major arterial streets and the amendment is consistent with the policy. 3rd Promotes the efficient use of infrastructure. The planned expansion of La Cholla to a four lane desert parkway represents a significant public investment in infrastructure to serve this area. The proposed increase in planned intensity will promote the efficient use of this expanded infrastructure, in conformance with the General Plan policy. (The amendment is supported by 31 different policies of the Plan (not in conformance with 3). 13 Notable General Plan Policies Policy 5.4.1 The Town shall maintain a harmonious relationship between urban development and development of the transportation network. Policy 6.1.2 The Town shall continue to require that all new developments be evaluated to determine impacts on all public facilities within the Town, including but not limited to schools and roads. Such impacts shall be used as criterion in deciding the approval or denial of land use rezoning proposals Policy 7.2.3 The Town shall allow and encourage master planned communities that offer high-quality neighborhoods with a variety of residential densities and appropriately located commercial uses to serve the community. In these developments, ensure there are adequate transitions and buffers between uses. Town of Oro Valley The 1st policy emphasizes having an appropriate relationship between the planned development and the transportation network. Expansion of La Cholla to a four lane parkway supports a moderate increase in density along this corridor. Creates that harmonious relationship. 14 General Plan Evaluation Criteria Conditions in the community have changed Socio-economic betterment / community and environmental compatibility Reflects market demand leading to community acceptance Will not adversely impact community without mitigating impacts Town of Oro Valley The second measure the Town uses to evaluate Major General Plan Amendments is four review criteria found in the Zoning Code. It is the burden of the applicant to demonstrate compliance with these criteria. We acknowledge the wording on the criteria is subject to interpretation. I’ll go over each criteria. We’ve assembled some information for consideration to help with the assessment of the amendment. 15 Conditions in community have changed? Town of Oro Valley Near build out Other areas in planning phase Creates growth pressure in this area The first criteria asks whether there have been changes in the community which justify the amendment. One change in the community is related to the level of growth we are seeing in the area, The Town is nearing build out. A lot of the land in the east has either been spoken for, is smaller parcels on Oracle Road or is currently in the planning process So a large percentage of the vacant land remaining in Oro Valley is along the La Cholla Corridor. One change in the community is the build out in other areas and the growth pressures it is creating along the La Cholla corridor 16 Conditions in community have changed? Town of Oro Valley 6,000+ 10,000+ 1 acre 3.3 acre 7,000 20,000 20,000 8,000 7,000 Naranja Lambert La Cholla Tangerine Shannon 1B 1A La Canada Medium density to east Transitions to rural / low density to west 511 lots added since 2011 7,000+ Looking at the growth in this area with a little more focus…. First, just to give a little context to this area in terms of the character of density… Moderate residential growth east of La Cholla with lot sizes generally ranging from 6,000 sq. ft. to ½ acre South is areas of lower density with lot sizes ranging from one acre and larger. Areas to the west are characterized as rural and typically have lot sizes in the 3.3 acre plus size. So the big take away from this map is the graduation in density and intensity moving from the east to the west. Interesting parcel as it is right at the interface between suburban level densities to the east and rural densities to the west. The plan proposed by the applicant attempts to transition the density from medium to low across the property. We see this property as very similar to the east side where moderate densities exist. We also view the La Cholla corridor very similar to the character of La Canada, which is a four lane roadway. Development to the east actually continues to the east and fronts on La Canada. There has been a lot of new residential growth focused within the La Cholla corridor including Rancho de Plata, Rancho de Cobre, Saguaros Viejos, Meritage at Naranja and a planned development at the southeast corner of Lambert and La Cholla. All told, this recent activity will add 511 new homes along this corridor in the next few years, all within the medium density range. We do see a moderate increase in density would be compatible with the adjacent area, specifically the area to the east. 17 Conditions in community have changed? Town of Oro Valley Tangerine La Cholla Naranja Lambert 2005 General Plan Adopted 2006 Voters approved La Cholla funding 2015 Naranja 2021 2016 La Cholla Another question to be answered is whether the expansion of La Cholla is a change in condition, warranting the amendment. In 2005, The General Plan was adopted and designated La Cholla as one of two major north-south arterials in OV – so it’s an important roadway for the community. It currently connects north to Tangerine Road, which is the major east-west arterial road in the community. In 2006, the voters approved funding for the expansion of La Cholla to a four lane road to Tangerine Road in 2021. The Town just received word this week from PAG and we are very confident that the expansion will be moved up from 2021 to 2016 based on existing and projected traffic in this area. Next year there are planned improvements to Naranja to improve the traffic congestion associated with the school. In this case, the Commission found that the funding of the expansion of La Cholla justifies reconsideration of the proposed land uses along this corridor. Again, this road has similarities to how La Canada has developed. 18 Conditions in community have changed? Town of Oro Valley This is picture of La Cholla south of Overton where the improvements have been completed This is the future of La Cholla Based on the projected increase in capacity and traffic on this roadway, the moderate increase in density will promote an efficient use of this infrastructure, which is consistent with General Plan policy. 19 Socio-economic betterment / community and environ compatibility? Nearby services / employment Required ESL compliance Low Density limitation / buffering / one-story Elimination of apartments Unit Cap Town of Oro Valley The second criteria the applicant must demonstrate compliance with deals with contributing to the socio economic betterment (or quality of life) of the community while achieving compatibility with the area and environment. This amendment will provide nearby commercial services and employment which reduce impact to roadways with residents driving far for services and employment. In terms of environmental compatibility, this property, once developed will be compliant with the ESL regulations in terms of open space conservation, native plant preservation and protection of the natural washes In terms of compatibility, the applicant has provided a Low Density area on the western side of the property coupled with a 200’ open space buffer and a one story residential building height restriction within 300 feet of the west property line. The one story restriction extends along the southern boundary and has been recently expanded by the applicant based on additional meetings with neighbors to the west. 20 Reflects market demand Policy 1.4.3 The Town reasonably wishes to be satisfied that sufficient demand exists before authorizing a higher land use intensity than the present zoning permits. - Medium Density - Townhomes Commercial Senior Care Town of Oro Valley The third criteria asks the question of whether the request reflects market demand which will lead to community acceptance. Is there a market for what they are requesting. Included on the screen is also a General Plan policy related to market demand. As can be seen, the policy indicates that the town “reasonably” wishes to be satisfied that sufficient demand exists for the land uses proposed. So, an empirical market study not required by the General Plan. It should be acknowledged that market demand beyond the 2 year time frame is difficult to predict. It should also be acknowledged that demand and supply in a free market economy are never perfectly synchronized and a margin of supply above demand is normal. The applicant has submitted additional analysis relative to the market for the proposed uses. The applicant has their market analyst here to answer questions relative to the information supplied. Some staff observations on the market information provided by the applicant. Medium Density I’ve outlined on a previous slide the amount of new residential growth that is occurring in this area, which does demonstrate a market in this area for medium density residential. The applicant’s analysis has an optimistic rate of growth and omits some residential supply (about 200 units). This will result in a longer absorption than suggested by the applicant. Townhomes The market demand information concludes there is a demand for approximately 200 townhomes, although the study is general in nature. Commercial The market study concludes that there is currently leakage of commercial sales out of this area. Market for 200,000 sq. ft. of additional retail demand, although backup analysis is general in nature and omits several zoned or planned sites It is reasonable to anticipate additional commercial will be needed, although the timeframe is uncertain and tied to residential growth. Senior Care With regard to senior care, demand for 200 additional beds, omits several large senior care uses in the planning process. The applicant has indicated they will be pursing a niche market, not addressed by applications pending before the Town. In conclusion, given the generalized nature of the general plan policy, staff is reasonably satisfied there is a market for the land uses proposed, although the timeframe for absorption will extend beyond the applicants forecast and commercial will be dependent on build out of residential developments in this area. 21 Will not impact community without mitigation? Low density Building height limits and buffer Apartments deleted, replaced with townhomes Unit cap 778 units School district impact Town of Oro Valley Lastly, the applicant needs to demonstrate that the amendment will not negatively impact the surrounding area or the community as a whole, without mitigation. This criteria looks at the relation of the project to the surrounding area in terms of compatibility and transition in land use. The applicant has proposed a low density area with a buffer and one-story limitation to address compatibility of the project with the rural areas to the west. The on-story residential building height limit has now been extended along the southern boundary The applicant has now deleted the proposed apartments and replaced this use with townhome development at 12 homes per acre. Established a unit cap of 778 units, which reduced the development potential down from 1044 units. The applicant has met with the school district who has now provided a letter indicating that with the applicant agreement to complete a donation agreement that the school district should be able to accommodate the enrollment generated by this development. 22 Amendment Evaluation The disposition of the General Plan Amendment shall be based on consistency with the vision, goals and policies of the General Plan, with special emphasis on compliance with the following criteria: -Conditions in the community have changed -Socio-economic betterment / community and environmental compatibility -Reflects market demand leading to community acceptance -Will not adversely impact community without mitigating impacts Town of Oro Valley The applicant has the burden demonstrating that the amendments meet two measures: The amendments are consistent with the Vision, Goals and Policies of the General Plan The amendments are compliant with the four review criteria At the conclusion of the public hearing, the Commission found that the applicant has met the burden set by these measures 23 Neighborhood Meetings Meeting Dates April 15 August 13 September 10 (Open House) October 20 Town of Oro Valley Issues High Density/Commercial Lack of market demand School Impact Maintain rural/low density Traffic Public Safety Environmental Impact April 15 August 13 September 10 Based on changes – New neighborhood meeting October 20 High Density/Commercial Lack of market demand School Impact Maintain rural/low density Traffic Public Safety Environmental Impact 24 Changes during Commission hearings Apartments Eliminated Townhomes 12 homes per acre Narrowed range of uses Unit cap 778 homes One story limit extended on south Amended Special Area Policies Amended criteria including market conclusions Town of Oro Valley The case was considered by two well attended Commission meetings. Between the Commission hearings, the applicant included a number of changes to create compatibility with the surrounding area Apartments Eliminated Townhomes 12 homes per acre Narrowed range of uses Unit cap 778 homes One story limit extended on south Amended Special Area Policies Amended criteria including market conclusions 25 Summary / Conclusion Factors For: Low / Medium Density compatible with area Efficient use of infrastructure Moderate increase appropriate with expanded roadway Provides nearby commercial / employment Factors Against Compatibility concerns from areas to the east and south Market information is general in nature Town of Oro Valley Factors For the Amendment Low / Medium Density compatible with area – Again we see this as similar to La Canada Efficient use of infrastructure: Commensuate with the level of investment. Moderate increase appropriate with expanded roadway: The question with this application is how much growth is appropriate and timing. Provides nearby commercial / employment Factors Against: Compatibility concerns from the areas to the east and south Market information is general in nature, but meets the measure of being “reasonably” satisfied 26 Recommendation Approve -General Plan Amendment to Master Planned Community -Adopt Special Area Policies -Delete Significant Resource Area Town of Oro Valley At the conclusion of their hearing on November 20th, the Planning Zoning Commission voted to recommend approval of the: Major General Plan Amendment to Master Planned Community Adoption of the Special Area Policies Delete Significant Resource Area As a reminder, you will need to vote separately on the two cases and motions have been provided separately for each case. Mayor, this concludes my presentation and I’ll now turn it over to the applicant, Mr. Paul Oland of the WLB Group. 27 Applicant Presentation Town of Oro Valley 29 Town of Oro Valley 30 Special Area Policies Lands outside ESL Critical Resource Area (CRA) shall be considered Resource Management Area 2. “MPA 1” parcels allow professional/medical office, urgent care/clinic, senior living/care, medium density residential, high density residential, and expansion of the Casas Church campus. “MPA 2” parcels allow professional/medical office, urgent care/clinic, senior living/care, and medium density residential. “Neighborhood Commercial/Office parcels shall have a back-up designation of “Medium Density Residential”. Planning unit boundaries are shown graphically. The actual boundaries shall extend to the centerline of adjacent rights-of-way or property boundaries.   Proposed roadway alignments are subject to change.   Recreation areas provided within the Master Plan shall count toward the required recreation area acreage required by Town Code for residential development within the Master Plan. This Master Planned area will comply with the Oro Valley Environmentally Sensitive Land Ordinance. As such, the outdated General Plan S.R.A. designation will be removed. Town of Oro Valley 31 Public Participation / Outreach Neighborhood April 15th Meetings August 13th September 10th October 20th Tonight Public Hearing Only November 3rd Public Hearing Recommendation December 10th Town Council Public Hearing & Decision Town of Oro Valley First, I wanted to cover an overview of the entire process to date to give an understanding of the level of public outreach which has occurred to this point in the process and outline the road ahead in terms of the public hearing process. The applicant has conducted three well attended neighborhood meetings to date on the request: April 15th, August 13th and September 10th. Due to changes in the amendment that have occurred since the last meeting, a fourth neighborhood meeting is scheduled for October 20th. As the first of two public hearings before the Commission, tonight is a public hearing only. Tonight is an opportunity to listen and learn by the sharing of information. Therefore, there will be no vote or recommendation. On November 3rd, a second public hearing will be held by the Commission at Town Hall at 6:00 PM. The Commission will again take public comment, but at the end of the public hearing will vote on a recommendation to Town Council. Town Council will then hold a Public Hearing on December 10th at 5:OO PM and potentially decide the case that night. 32 Reflects market demand? Town of Oro Valley This chart shows the rate of single family residential growth over the past seven years. You can see the high point in 2008 with 228 single family permits. We dipped down during the recession through the years 2009 – 2011 with an average of 55 permits a year. We jumped back up in 2012 and have continued at a moderate rate of about 150+ permits a year for the past three years. If our current trend of growth continues, we should have over a ten year supply of medium density inventory. There are a lot of variables (economy, cyclical nature of growth, annexations) which could intervene and this is strictly a straight line analysis of the numbers. So in summary, we do believe there is a current market for medium density residential based on recent activity, particularly along this corridor. The question before the Commission is whether the existing supply of medium density residential inventory is adequate in meeting the demand. 33 Town of Oro Valley 34 Town of Oro Valley 35 Town of Oro Valley 36 37 OV114-014 & 015 TOWN COUNCIL HEARING 2014.12.10 38 1. Conditions Have Changed Since General Plan was Last Adopted. RTA created. La Cholla expansion approved, funded, and imminent. Traffic volume will increase 3X to 4X. Increased non-luxury housing demand in Oro Valley will exhaust supply in less than 10 years. 39 2. The proposed change is sustainable by contributing to the socio-economic betterment of the community, while achieving community and environmental compatibility. Necessary infrastructure is either already planned, or will be developer-funded. Significant open space will be preserved. A trail system will be built, providing connectivity to, from, and through the area. Design guidelines will be applied to all development, ensuring high quality aesthetics that match the project’s surroundings. Density transitions from La Cholla Blvd. west to the existing lower density neighborhoods. Open space buffers and height limitations mitigate view impacts. 40 3. The proposed change reflects market demand which leads to viability and general community acceptance. Oro Valley averages around 180 new non-luxury homes annually. Demand is modeled to exceed supply for a couple years, then supply stays slightly ahead of demand for three years, then supply becomes increasingly deficient. Valbridge will provide detailed market study summary. 41 42 4. The amendment will not adversely impact the community as a whole, or a portion of the community without an acceptable means of mitigating these impacts through the subsequent rezoning process. Perimeter buffering and height limitations have been added. Land use ambiguity has been eliminated. Infrastructure will be funded. Amphitheater School District will receive requested funds to offset the impact of additional students. Significant tax dollars will go to the Town and School District. 43 44 Apartments. Offices. Urgent Care / Clinic. For-Sale Homes Only. Two-Story Limit. Casas expansion on southern parcel. * 45 Open Space = 41% Attached Residential, Sr. Living/Care, or MDR 45 46 Wider Landscape Buffers Same Building Heights + Edge Transitions Same Lot Sizes Compared to Canada Hills… 47 (Carmel Pointe) 48 (DC Ranch) 49 50 150’ Open Space Buffer Increased to 200’ Open Space = 37% Low Density Residential Limit of 2 homes per acre. Casas expansion on middle parcel. Single-Story Restriction Added/Expanded on Southern Edge 300’ Single-Story Restriction Added/Expanded on Western Edge 50 One 51 52 53 300’ Single-Story Restriction Added/Expanded on Southern Edge Open Space = 41% Medium Density Residential Professional / Medical Offices. Sr. Living / Care. Up to 4.9 homes per acre, but likely 2 – 3, similar to Canada Hills. 53 54 Open Space = 36% Neighborhood Commercial / Office on Naranja Holding for commercial use, per General Plan’s designation of La Cholla as principal corridor. Similar retail to La Canada & Naranja SWC. Back-up designation of Medium Density Res. at build-out. 54 55 Open Space = 33% NC/O Expansion on Lambert Needed to make existing Gen. Plan-designated commercial area more viable (net 8-9 acres). 55 Open Space = 100% Open Space Recreation Areas Washes preserved throughout Master Plan. Trails & pedestrian connections throughout master plan. Recreation Areas consolidated for better community use. 56 Open Space = 37% 57 58 General Plan Policy Conformance: 1.1.3 – Avoid developing in washes and riparian areas. 1.2.1 – Maintain predominantly low-density character while considering needs of financial stability and infrastructure efficiency. 1.3.1 – Locate residential neighborhoods close to activity centers compatible with residential uses. 1.3.2 – Establish new commercial uses near new residential neighborhoods, with appropriate buffering. 1.3.4 – Cluster commercial developments at specific nodes, and implement strict aesthetic and design guidelines. 1.3.5 – Encourage master planning that looks comprehensively at subject properties and adjacent areas. 1.4.11 – All properties over 40 acres must be master planned. 59 General Plan Policy Conformance (Cont’d): 4.1.4 – All required infrastructure improvements will be developer funded. 6.1.1 – Efficient provision of services, which fights sprawl and keeps long-term maintenance costs lower: Three Fire Stations, one Police Station, five Schools, one Library, and five parks within three miles. All utilities are close by. 5.1 – Expand pedestrian circulation / trail system. 8.1.1 Promote a community-wide open space system that includes developed parks, rec facilities, natural open space areas, trails, and bikeways. 11.2.7 – Adhere to ESLO. 12.3.2 – Use drought-tolerant vegetation. 60 General Plan Policy Conformance (Cont’d): 7.2.1 – Encourage the development of a variety of types of homes to accommodate the varied needs of residents, including single-family attached and detached, townhomes, small apartments, condominiums, active retirement communities, and congregate housing. 7.2.3 – Encourage master planned communities that offer high-quality neighborhoods with a variety of residential densities and appropriately located commercial uses. 61 62 63 64 65 66 Market Study Northwest of Lambert Lane & La Cholla Boulevard 67 68 69 70 71 The market is currently coming out of a recession and STDB growth projections are under-represented. Our projections are based on historical 2000-2010 household growth rates which equally rate the growth cycle and the recession in that decade. Owner occupancy rates projected to decrease from 75% to 70% as the area matures. Price range is $250,000 to $500,000 move up segment. Given age cohort information, low maintenance for sale units would meet needs on this market niche. Conclusions 72 73 Demand is strong However, scale and market demand is not met by complexes under construction. Area has seasonal empty-nesters in a population weighted to older age cohorts. Recommend casita apartments such as Tucson Rental Homes and Avilla, NOT stacked 2 and 3 story garden units with higher density. Conclusions 74 75 76 77 78 Population age cohorts and income cohorts intersect to infer considerable demand. Balancing development of targeted medical and wellness services with assisted living development appears to have strong demand. Conclusions 79 80 81 82 The area has a significant retiree and seasonal population There is significant discretionary income for food, services, and medical services Centers with higher vacancy lack curb appeal and inviting attractive architecture to create a sense of place. The area is not overbuilt. Higher vacancy centers have design and/or functional obsolescence issues. There is household and income growth demand for a planned center in 2 years but likely with a 5 to 7 year delivery. Despite demand, immediate construction would not take place for at least 2 years due to planning/entitlement time as the market is still emerging from a recession and development is less risky with strong pre-leasing. Conclusions 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Naranja Widening La Cholla Widening General Plan PAD / Rezoning Engineering Construction Home Sales 1st Commercial? 2nd Commercial? Estimated Development Schedule 114 115 116