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AGENDA ORO VALLEY TOWN COUNCIL STUDY SESSION MARCH 8, 2004 ORO VALLEY COUNCIL CHAMBERS 11,000 N. LA CANADA DRIVE CALL TO ORDER: 4:30 P.M. 1 . PRESENTATION OF THE COMMUNITY/D RETAIL ANALYSIS REPORT BY THE BUXTON COMPANY ADJOURNMENT The Town of Oro Valley complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). If any person with a disability needs any type of accommodation, please notify the Oro Valley Town Clerk, at 229-4700 POSTED: 03/01/04 4:30 p.m. lh TOWN OF ORO VALLEY STUDY SESSION COUNCIL COMMUNICATION MEETING DATE: MARCH 8, 2004 TO: HONORABLE MAYOR & COUNCIL FROM: JEFFREY H. WEIR, CEcD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATOR SUBJECT: PRESENTATION OF THE COMMUNITYID RETAIL ANALYSIS REPORT BY THE BUXTON COMPANY. BACKGROUND: During the August 20, 2003 regular Council meeting a contract with The Buxton Company was approved for the completion of a CommunitylD Retail Analysis. This analysis, developed in two phases, reviewed the retail potential of three separate sites. The sites were selected by the Town and included: Site 1 — Oro Valley Marketplace located at the southwest corner of the intersection of Tangerine and Oracle Roads; • Site 2 — Oracle Crossings Retail Center located on the western side of Oracle Road south of Magee Road; and Site 3 —the existing Foothills Mall located at the northwest corner of the intersection of Ina Road and La Cholla. The first phase of the project reviewed the annual retail sales potential for each site. The review used a unique analytical process developed by The Buxton Company wherein households contained within the 'v`_irket 'rea were ?x11y7ec# baser on !!fe_style c!oi cs which rel tP to existabg 71enriing n ttprr:c T ' market area was determined based on a Drive-Time Analysis. The second phase focused on an in depth analysis of one of the three sites analyzed in phase one. The site selected for phase two was the largest of the sites and is located at the SWC of Tangerine and Oracle Roads, Oro Valley Marketplace. A representative of The Buxton Company, Mr. Mike Rosa, will make a presentation to the Council on their findings for both Phase One and Phase Two. FISCAL IMPACT: Potential Annual Retail Sales by location are: Site 1 - Oro Valley Marketplace $ 965,456,000 Site 2 - Oracle Crossings retail Center $ 691,220,000 Site 3 - Foothills Mall $ 1,218,745,000 TOWN OF ORO VALLEY COUNCIL COMMUNICATION PAGE 2 OF 2 ATTACHMENTS: 1. Phase One abbreviated report materials including: a. Executive Summary. b. Trade Area Segmentation and Demographics. c. Sites 1, 2 & 3 Analyses and Annual Sales Potentials. d. Terms Glossary. 2. Phase Two abbreviated report materials: a. General Comments. b. Executive Summary. c. Site Analysis materials. d. Selected Recommended retailer Profiles. RECOMMENDATION: N/A. Jeffre Weir, CEcD Econo i Development Administrator xa Chuck Sweet Town Manager a r 410e CI" - C _ � 1 � 1 4 jah4 Ai% 400. 4ft *kW leal k I"Id'DEA" CommunitylD® February 2004 411. • • • • Buxton IDentifying Customers CommunitylD® Oro Valley, AZ— Phase II Project Overview Executive Summary 3 Retail Site 6 Recommended Retailers I I Real Estate Requirements 32 Methodology 34 Household Segmentation Drive Time Trade Area Glossary of Selected Terms Retailer Analysis and Cannibalization Household Segment Summaries • • • • 1 • • 40 j • • • • • • FOw�.n+ it; y 4; r Ommunit m Oro Valley, AZ-- Phase 11 vow Project Overview Sponsor Jeff Weir Economic Development Administrator Town of Oro Valley 11000 N. La Canada Drive Oro Valley, AZ, 85737 Purpose of Phase II CommunitylD is a two-phase program that is designed specifically for use in community economic development initiatives. In Phase I, Buxton examined the potential for Oro Valley, AZ to attract new retailers and restaurants. Buxton compared three retail locations in Oro Valley, AZ and determined the relative viability of each to recruit the interest of retailers and restaurants. It was determined that Oro Valley, AZ does have a potential to attract new retailers and restaurants. Oro Valley, AZ selected Retail Site I for study in Phase II. Phase II is intended to identify specific retailers and restaurants that are most likely to consider retail site I as a potential location. Buxton examined thousands of retailers and restaurants using sophisticated, retail-minded analysis to narrow our focus to those with location requirements that best match the site's trade area. Those final selections, and the analysis leading to their selection, are presented individually in this report. Retail Site The proposed retail site selected by Oro Valley, AZ for study in Phase II is: Site I —The site identified by Oro Valley for study in Phase I is Tangerine Road & Oracle Road, located on the city's east side. How to Use This Report Oro Valley, AZ should review and comprehend the information contained in this report. Using this report, the accompanying marketing packages, and economic development partners, Oro Valley, AZ is positioned to develop a strategy to contact and recruit each of the identified retailers. Buxton highly recommends that each retailer be contacted personally and that contact be maintained during the period of time that it takes for a national retailer to consider, select and approve new locations. 410 410 0 r CommunitylDAZ—Oro Valley, Phase II , Project Overview This map depicts the location of the retail site that has been evaluated in Phase II. : _______ - 1 ,.. 77, 1 ,, City Limits "- r * Site 1 Catalina Shopping Centers s„=-=�� /AIIIII GLA in thousands rcefi: • • • 1000+ , `' , • 500tol000 i t 1.1 a 100 to 500 , 0 Below 100 �. J 1 ! r ,�`�_ � )�Aii,;.:i 1�i. TortoIIta _ r , Oro Valley Vu, t) ---/ -a■■■=n - y: ,' ' ,, ■M a ra na I■■■_• _ •_ A., j Iii:I■1111■ . f� .,,A,_ \4 �r 1 Ili'.' ) _ ! -- il ■■■■ =it.,r= �'fi r �5�� 1111■■ ri, l =I= -6.� `a'��i'=.� VP:2„. EMIT 01 1 X "W-rif AO s ill`pryLwjIvwv- �� �N; " ���".li �-- r �r ....ANA`� -- ' lit' i►�'1 ,,' .vier, tom'' f . i..., ,..,„....,„,..,,„.. itii airdiaa r 4/ Akm..s - .u killIEVArrob,w;„.4.445.,, allifi. , _ A. y :4, 0' ''• t & qCaSasgr,v Adobes m �l�'4 e , f/� ivy.,44 1ife I 1io I1hiil4 1.W 1I r, ! L&Ee\m1NR■E-1r.laA lN4il)cii!tAlP, d, gr.CI'.Psr::'Al P,m 4,4 ii • igrte ��� ,0i..:.. .. � zn �/ „A,,i)irg,..if. ,, . 1 frif„ ittorim ' , = moverfiwz...4, ..srwr pr--, (s.. -, iklit ' 7 , ft , Tr I. ' # i k FlowingkWeils aq:�"��iitailallettia -_,, l'''79 a."411U----.4' ,• rat/w'.... •t.rte ii ,�,r-,,.lith ,THE TUCSON MALL I iiw . ,trimser .; ;.. :....► It 0 2 4 a.>♦ -----.;4 t it s: Zurr-.� :h■ liScalffiiiViintm.:�i. III •miles • .•.. •e;.�.,•24..c.... ..�. ........ rims:- L �-tet;•�*'� .....s. ���.•,e..-:s. rte..,y��;�;� j,� ~^.. ►�r •aimram1amaimon/...=7.q....implia: rial.. w .:7,3 flow*.Atm, NEn.-�i :m::1c psi, .1: =u:.in:n�un.._._ h,r t, 410 410 ,.. .. 2 , r;', 11110 i ,,, C � CommunitylD Oro Valle , AZ-- Phase IIy Executive Summary Findings In Phase I, Buxton studied Site I to determine its relative potential to attract new retailers and restaurants to Oro Valley, AZ. Our analysis indicated Site I would be attractive to several major retailers, and it was selected for study in Phase II by Oro Valley, AZ. Our findings with respect to Site I are summarized as follows: Site I, located at Tangerine Road & Oracle Road, is located on the east side of Oro Valley. Like Site 2, retailers will benefit from the outstanding visibility and traffic volumes that Oracle Rd provides. A I 5-minute drive time trade area was determined suitable based on the site's road accessibility, geographic barriers, positioning relative to other neighboring communities, and current competitive retail environment. The trade area for site I taps into the new, growing areas of Oro Valley. As a result, household numbers are significantly lower than Site 2. T -. 3 r CommunitylD Oro Valley, Al.- Phase II Executive Summary Selected Retailers and Restaurants Buxton examined thousands of retailers and restaurants to determine those with location requirements that best match the buying habits and demographics within the site's retail trade area. Initially, hundreds of quality matches resulted from our examination, a testament to the character of Oro Valley, AZ as an attractive retail location. The initial list was narrowed to approximately 50 targets based upon additional research of each retailer and restaurant. Factors included relative match scores, business strategies and conditions, and proximity to existing locations. Buxton determined the best targets in order to make a final selection of retailers and restaurants for which marketing packages would be prepared. Factors considered in this final step included overall desirability, community preferences, the potential tenant mix and other issues specific to the economic development goals of Oro Valley, AZ. Average Sales US Retailer Retailer Classification B Store Y Locations Anchor Blue Clothing/apparel $1,600,000 220 Big 5 Sporting Goods Sporting goods/athletic wear $1,800,000 275 Coco's Family Restaurant Restaurants/bars $3,000,000 470 Electronics Boutique Computers/software $1,700,000 I,145 General Nutrition Center Nutrition shops/diet centers $590,000 4,200 Hasting's Books, Music, &Videos Books/music/videos $4,710,000 146 Hollywood Video Video Rental/sales $1,670,000 1,84 I International House of Pancakes Restaurants/bars $2,340,000 1,063 Jamba Juice Coffee bars/juice bars $2,130,000 350 Medicine Shoppe Drug Stores $1,000,000 1,100 Mervyn's Department Store Department Stores $15,700,000 264 Perkins Restaurants/bars $1,780,000 502 Play It Again Sports Sporting goods/athletic wear $500,000 482 Rite Aid Discount Pharmacies Drug Stores $2,630,000 3,451 Round Table Pizza Restaurant Restaurants/bars $1,050,000 530 Samuels Jewelers Fine Jewelry/watches $700,000 126 Say-on Drugs Drug Stores $3,520,000 709 Staples The Office Superstore Office Supplies/furniture $52.30000 1,286 Victoria's Secret Women's apparel $1,160,000 1,002 Vitamin World Nutrition shops/diet centers $800,000 542 N . ',4, 4 r • 0 r- CommunitylDOro Valley, AZ— Phase II 0 • C Executive Summary Selected Tucson Area Shopping Centers Buxton also studied the retail mix in large shopping centers within the Tucson area. The list below consists of super regional centers which have a gross leasable area (GLA) greater than I,000,000 square feet. Listed are the anchor stores, major restaurants, and other major chain retailers for each of the retail centers. Name of Address GLA Classification Anchor Major Other Major Center Stores Restaurants Retailers Foot Locker Millers El Con JCPenney Magpies Gourmet Outpost/Anchor Blue Shopping 3601 E. 1,469,000 Super Regional Robinsons- Pizza Gordon's Jewelers pp g Broadway Blvd. Center Center May Philly s Finest Home Depot GNC Radio Shack Applebee's Grill& Finish Line Bar Ann Taylor Loft 5870 E. Super Regional Dillards Red Lobster Talbots Park Place 1,350,000 Macy's Anchor Blue Broadway Blvd. Center Sears Starbucks Coffee Banana Republic Subway GNC McDonald's Vitamin World Dillards's Mimi's Cafe Foot Locker JCPenney The Olive Garden Ann Taylor The Tucson Super Regional Macy's, Red Robin Talbots Mall 4500 N.Oracle 1,300,000 Center Mervyn s , Robinson's- Rony Roma s Banana Republic May Chick-Fil-A Anchor Blue Sears Panda Express GNC 5 r c . r c ro Valle , AZ-- Phase 11 CommunityllYOy Retail Site *„., Introduction r . T IN ilip... ,r r Site 1 15-Minute CI Drive Time _ �-. t .. L A L..... Shopping in Centers --111 .,I - tr. j GLA in thousands ! 5 N i s • 1440+ .\\ , t • st � 500 to 1000 ' 'Catalina • 100 to 500 _ 1 IOW., Below 100 • _ 1 lI . fr" Ela ' Jim( *a ir *, Allr-‘_ 4 , mr,„Aaprdal,.. ,,,,,. of, i , . ,lit F.4.141 - A\ lig :- ..,,, li - . . ::..-,-;.W4t. „dal. 11110.17Alicipralliit: u_ f*angerin Rd&oracle Rd [ph:` '' IIIO,ro Vlle 1 liortol�.a Y �,,PIMP ilagral --i-Marana OEMii, ilr/ i,....Er. i ..,A. . 7 ,� II--- __ ., ilimr-vg.r.- t spill...., -,,it . ....w...... .,..,,..„ r....., mi.. .,,,.,,.... , ,..„:„. • ...., ..,.. „,_ !no) maw, A Oki.. iiie ,. till---„„„, t--. r mitmisrdorehoi-0:e 1 ,, e114 lei: .a.! 1 n Casas A'do'bes r 1r..41_ P",f,ii,,...---,- ,, / i a 44 titiztaiii*:'; likIllt-45-0144-rireY1 .idleiu.66215111.111,36**. 711, lit; -- -. ' 24.. iiiiititkalgiiCa:fiLliiii-,,t, . kir 4411 p, i.5 s„t ilff,rerifti4o,rils,401 :/' miles kN . i*, - 1 , , , „.„, v fs _ . , ile k i "44 ier A 1..' .'ll The retail site is at the intersection of Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd just south of the city limits. The map below depicts the trade area. The area consists of a I 5-minute drive time polygon, determined by Buxton's proprietary drive-time technology. There are an estimated 20,874 households that fall within this trade area. Please refer to the Methodology section for details on our drive-time technology. l.° 6 _ ,_ ,„,,- ..t.- CommunitylDOro Valley, AZ— Phase II Retail Site I 5-Minute Trade Area Segmentation Each household in the U.S. can be described by one of the 50 segments, based upon its consumer habits and spending patterns. This graph depicts segments by percent of total households that compromise the trade area for Retail Site I. A segment that represents at least five percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. The chart at the bottom of this page provides household counts and indicates the percent of all households in the trade area that are classified in each dominant segment. The next page provides a brief description of dominant segments. The methodology section of this report includes a full description of each dominant segment. Oro Valley,AZ 20,874 Households Retail Site 1 15-Minute Trade Area 30- 25- 20- I F 15- - u , � a 10 It" i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Segments Dominant Segments Description Households % Of All Households 4 Mid-Life Success 3,089 14.8% 7 Comfortable Times 1,297 6.2% 8 Movers and Shakers 1,413 6.8% 10 Home Sweet Home 5,204 24.9% ir 15 Great Beginnings I,324 6.3% ' 0 20 Secure Adults 2,208 10.6% • 23 Settled In 1,704 8.2% j • A. • ,. 7 f I • 4 4 4 ♦ ay 4 41.4%:“..° %: 1► II , AZ— Phase 11 CommunityllY Oro Valley, Retail Site Dominant Segment Descriptions 4 MID-LIFE SUCCESS — These households have very high incomes and own their suburban homes, whose value is two-and-a-half times the national average. They work in white-collar occupations—such as sales, use discount brokers to purchase stocks, and stay informed by reading news and travel magazines. 7 COMFORTABLE TIMES —These are typically high-income households, with slightly older than average married couples or families. They typically live in the suburbs, own their home, have a high level of education, and work in white-collar occupations. They are very civic minded, belonging to veteran's clubs, contributing to public broadcasting, and writing to elected officials. 8 MOVERS AND SHAKERS — Typically, these households contain employed singles and couples with no children. They live in the suburbs and have high incomes and advanced educations. Members of this segment are likely to visit museums and attend live theater. Movers and Shakers are active Internet users who shop, bank, and make purchases online. 10 HOME SWEET HOME — Typically married couples with few, if any, children living in the home, these households have above average incomes, own their homes, and are primarily concentrated in the suburbs. This segment tends to have a great deal invested in their homes and is likely to lease a vehicle. 15 GREAT BEGINNINGS — These households typically consist of one or two young adults who reside in urban and suburban areas. This segment is likely to own a Honda and purchase gasoline using a debit card. They also tend to listen to modern rock radio stations and read weekly news and entertainment magazines. 20 SECURE ADULTS — This segment's population consists primarily of older singles and couples without children who live in the suburbs. They are more likely to be members of fraternal orders, civic organizations, or veteran's clubs. Many Secure Adults read mature market magazines, watch prime-time television, and prefer Oldsmobile and Buick automobiles. 23 SETTLED IN — These households consist primarily of older couples or singles without children. They live in suburban areas and have slightly below average incomes. They like to stay active and enjoy doing things themselves, including minor home improvements and automobile oil changes. Their media choices are often home and garden oriented. r ', V I C . riP- CommunityllY OrOro Valley, AZ— Phase II C . 41; Retail Site Average Daily Traffic Counts Traffic counts at this intersection range from 26,300 to 43,400 vehicles per day. 3,600 , * Site 1 i3' !� • \ Traffic �� vii!`L ' Counts 4 \ 1 Shopping Centers \ GLAin thousands �l 26300 ill 100104 �� • 500 to 1000 a 100 to 500 iiiiit3.9(10 0 Below100 if or I 1 AV .N iki i isS 2,300 PII • •� Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd \J 1 7( 1 i __ ' -3,800 Dirk i1 ..,,,, IIF li 3,000 /43,4()0 9,200 i 16,600 // = . p , . 3,800. y , / --\ 4 , • I • ...., , , --, // >\\ CommunitylDCaro Valley, AZ— Phase II Retail Site I 5-Minute Trade Area Demographic Summary The charts below present pertinent data and information that guided our findings and our recommendation of retailers and restaurants. Population 1 2007 Projection 58,700 2002 Estimate 50,944 2000 Census 47,785 1990 Census 23,623 Growth from 1990-2000 102.29% Households 2007 Projection 24,265 2002 Estimate 20,874 2000 Census 19,500 1990 Census 9,331 Growth from 1990 - 2000 108.98% Income 2002 Average $74,077 Household Income 2002 Median $56,928 Household Income 2002 Per Capita Income $31,284 Property Value 2002 Median Property Value $191,839 Traffic Count Vehicles Per Day 43,400 10?' y 1 r. .s e Oro Valley, AZ— Phase II 40 CommunitylLYy10 1; Recommended Retailer Profiles Selected Retailers and Restaurants Buxton examined thousands of retailers and restaurants to determine those with location requirements that best match the buying habits and demographics within the site's retail trade area. This analysis identifies potential retailers and restaurants that match the household profile of the trade area. The trade area profile segmentation graph was compared with the profiles of over 2,500 retailers and restaurants. Retailer profiles were created by taking the existing sites of a retailer in the region, getting the segmentation composition within a ten-minute drive-time around each site and determining the average segmentation composition for each retailer. The goal is to match a specific retailer's profile to that of the Oro Valley, AZ site's trade area profile. Where there is a close match of the retailer's location profile with the household profile of the trade area, the retailer is selected as a target for recruitment. If there is a mismatch of profiles, then obviously the retailer is not considered. The selection of target retailers also takes into account other factors. If a potential target retailer already has a location nearby, it might not be included. Site characteristics, tenant mix, the site's regional setting, and community goals are considered. Our Phase II process yielded a final recommended list of 20 retail and restaurant targets. The following sections of this report provide detailed information that documents the selection of each targeted retailer and restaurant. First, general information is provided that describes the location prefernces of each company, in addition to contact information. Second, a match report compares the household segmentation of the retail trade area with the household segments that represent the existing customer base for each retailer or restaurant. These match reports summarize the attractiveness of a Oro Valley, AZ location for each target. Finally, a map is provided of the retail site trade area, and the core customer households for each retailer or restaurant are overlayed to construct a compelling visual in support of recruitment efforts. This information is combined with supplemental marketing information to create individual marketing packages that can be used in efforts to recruit each company to the Town of Oro Valley, AZ. r r 11 � CommunitylD Oro Valley, AZ— Phase II Recommended Retailer Profiles Anchor Blue Anchor Blue considers locations in enclosed super regional malls, enclosed regional malls, power centers, outlet centers, and downtown/central business districts. They prefer fashion and outlet stores as co-tenants. Their customer base is mostly mid income teens. They currently operate in Arizona and have plans for expansion in Arizona. Contact Information: 2501 East Guasti Road Ontario, CA 91761 Phone (909) 605-5000 http://www.anchorblue.com 12 CommunityI_�rRetailer Match Report Retailer Anchor Blue Site: Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd February Report Date: 25, 2004 Oro Valley, Al P Segmentation Profle ) (15 Minute Drive Time)(2) 25% 20% C ;° 15% y 0 0. V 10%• - . 11110 5% 410 411110 n n_r, IL 0% , mos MS MEM 1 2 3 4 5 E) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 IP I - Retailer Profile(Dominant Segments)(3) ri Retailer Profile(All Other Segments) --- Site Profile(4) C Trade Area Comparison (15 Minute Drive Time) Oro Valley, AZ Anchor Blue Site Trade Area Average Trade Areas) 2002 Estimated 2001 Projected Total Population 40,881 50,944 58,700 Total Households 15,780 20,814 24,265 Retailer Dominant Segment Households 8,104 11,633 13,523 Daytime (Workday) Population(6) 22,254 8,981 N/A (1)Segmentation Profile Every U.S.household is classified into one of fifty distinct segments described by that household's lifestyle and spending habits. (2)Drive Time Drive time is used to define the trade area. (3)Dominant Segments Any segment that makes up at least five percent of a retailer's targeted profile(RED BARS). (4)Site Profile Those segments within the site's drive time trade area(BLUE LINE). (5)Average Trade Area Anchor Blue trade areas used in this comparison are similar in population and market type to Oro Valley,AZ. (6)Daytime Population The number of persons employed in the drive time trade area. Data Sources.Clantas,Inc.,MicroVisiorr®,0 2002,InfoUSA,Inc.,0 2002,Nabcnal Research Bureau,0 2002,Modiamark Reewch,Inc.,0 2002,Geographic Data Technology,Inc,0 2002 C Oro Valley, AZ— Phase II CommunitylLYy Recommended Retailer Profiles Coco's Family Restaurant Coco's Family Restaurant considers community strip centers, neighborhood strip centers, and freestanding locations. All co-tenants are considered. They currently operate and have plans for expansion in Arizona. Contact Information: Vice President, Operations Herschel Hendrickson 5780 Fleet Street, Suite 250 Carlsbad, CA 92008 Phone (760) 804-5750 Fax (760) 476-5151 www.carrows.com IP 1111 C • 4110 C 4111 4110 C C 14 S ; Community* Restaurant _ . ._ .. . Restaurant Coco's Family Restaurant Site: Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd Report Date: February 25, 2004 Oro Valley, Al P Segmentation Profile ' (15 Minute Drive Time)(2) 25% 20% c ,- 15% .� 0 0- E 0 10% . e 0 5% PA1 IP il .: '-' , k 46. 'AA 41111 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 4110 1 - Restaurant Profile(Dominant Segments)(3) Restaurant Profile(All Other Segments) - Site Profilee4) 40 1110 Trade Area Comparison (15 Minute Drive Time) ED Oro Valley, AZ 4111 Coco's Family Restaurant Site Trade Area Average Trade Area(s) 2002 Estimated 2001 Projected Total Population 54,218 50,944 58,700 Total Households 21,298 20,874 24,265 Restaurant Dominant Segment Households 12,381 13,568 15,773 Daytime (Workday) Population(6) 19,834 8,981 N/A (1)Segmentation Profile Every U.S.household is classified into one of fifty distinct segments described by that household's lifestyle and spending habits. (2)Drive Time Drive time is used to define the trade area. (3)Dominant Segments Any segment that makes up at least five percent of a retailer's targeted profile(RED BARS). (4)Site Profile Those segments within the site's drive time trade area(BLUE LINE). (5)Average Trade Area Coco's Family Restaurant trade areas used in this comparison are similar in population and market type to Oro Valley,AZ. (6)Daytime Population The number of persons employed in the drive time trade area. Data Sources:Ciantas,Inc.,MicroVisicn®,0 2002,IntoUSA,Inc.,0 2002,National Resaerch Bureau.0 2002,Mediwrnerk Research,Inc.,0 2002,Geographic Data Technology.Inc.0 2002 4111 4P r CommunitylD Y Oro Valley, AZ— Phase II Recommended Retailer Profiles International House Of Pancake International House Of Pancake considers power centers, community strip centers, neighborhood strip centers, pad site/outparcels, downtown/central business districts, and freestanding locations. They prefer entertainment, discount, outlet, and grocery stores as co-tenants. Their customer base is mostly mid income. They currently operate in Arizona and have plans for expansion all across the US. Contact Information: Director, Real Estate Dan Campbell 450 North Brand Boulevard Glendale, CA 91203 Phone (818) 240-6055 Fax (818) 553-2009 http://www.ihop.com Agent: Jason Dedmore 450 North Brand Boulevard 7t' Floor Glendale, CA 91203 Phone (818) 553-2081 Fax (818) 553-6096 jdedmore@ihopcorp.com 41) • a • •S • • 19 ! i • • ♦ °U* 1 X X� rad 1 • , Comm! '��� Restaurant� Restaurant International House Of Pancake Site: Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd Report Date: February 25, 2004 Oro Valley, AZ 4. ...., Segmentation Profile ' (15 Minute Drive Time)(2) ‘,...., kiw 25% C C 20% c Cl)o . 15% 0. E 0 C.) 10% e 0 5% . 11 lin ■ 11 ,.. ,> 01 U 4 1-. 4111114,_416. .ice pia 1 _ .. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 - Restaurant Profile(Dominant Segments)(3) n Restaurant Profile(All Other Segments) --- Site Profile) Trade Area Comparison (IS Minute Drive Time) Oro Valley, AZ International House Of Pancake Site Trade Area Average Trade Area(s) 2002 Estimated 2001 Projected Total Population 52,409 50,944 58,700 Total Households 18,873 20,814 24,265 Restaurant Dominant Segment Households 8,354 12,823 14,907 Daytime (Workday) Population(6) 25,170 8,981 N/A (1)Segmentation Profile Every U.S.household is classified into one of fifty distinct segments described by that household's lifestyle and spending habits. (2)Drive Time Drive time is used to define the trade area. (3)Dominant Segments Any segment that makes up at least five percent of a retailer's targeted profile(RED BARS). (4)Site Profile Those segments within the site's drive time trade area(BLUE LINE). (5)Average Trade Area International House Of Pancake trade areas used in this comparison are similar in population and market type to Oro Valley,AZ. (6)Daytime Population The number of persons employed in the drive time trade area. . Date Sources.Giant s,Inc.,MicroVisiorr®,0 2002,InfoUSA,Inc.,0 2002,National Research Bureau,0 2002,Mediarnaric Research,Inc.,0 2002•Geographic Date Technoicgy,Inc,0 2002 • O • • CommunitylD® The Retail Recruiting System • • O • e Phase • Retail Trade Area Analysis • • • • t_tvi41,;p#,• • 00 e � • 0 44 "1/4, c 4 • • _ it- 16, • -"apoza. • fptihaE0111., Oro Valley, AZ Prepared November, 2003 Tb tLixton company 4,•• Community!!) 1 he Retail Recruiting System •o•,,;,,-. Table of Contents Project Overview 2 Executive Summary •••4 Retail Site Comparison 5 Retail Site 1 6 Retail Site 2 •12 Retail Site 3 18 Methodology •••• 24 Supplemental Information Appendix A: State, County, City, Demographic Maps Appendix B: County & City Demographic Reports Appendix C: Retail Trade Potential Appendix D: Retail Match & Retail Miss C i� C C Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I 1 Communitvll) ♦ M The Retail Recruiting System „r" > Project Overview Sponsor Jeff Weir Economic Development Administrator Town of Oro Valley 11000 N. La Canada Drive Oro Valley, AZ, 85737 Purpose of Phase I Community ID is a two-phase program that is designed specifically for use in community economic development initiatives. Phase I is intended to measure Oro Valley's potential to recruit new retailers, including restaurants. Three retail sites within Oro Valley are examined in Phase I. The Buxton company examines Oro Valley's retail site trade areas in the same manner that thousands of p Y retailers would. Should the Buxton company document sufficient potential for Oro Valley to attract new retailers, we identify the site with the greatest overall potential for success, and recommend that for Phase II of the program. Phase II provides Oro Valley with a list of specific targeted retailers and provides comprehensive marketing packages that can be used p g to recruit them. Retail Sites The three sites identified by the Town of Oro Valley for study in Phase I are: 1. Tangerine & Oracle, located on the eastern border of Oro Valley's city limits. 2. Magee & Oracle, located just outside and south of Oro Valley's city limits. 3. La Cholla& Ina, centrally located between I-10 & Oracle, south of Oro Valley. How to Use this Report The Town of Oro Valley should review the conclusions and information provided in this report in order to select a retail site that will be studied in Phase II. In addition to the Buxton company's recommendation, which is based strictly on trade area research, the Town of Oro Valley may wish to consider infrastructure costs, land ownership, developer interests, community goals and other factors. The Buxton company is prepared to engage Phase II and match retailers with Oro Valley's selected retail site. timor Oro Valley, AZ--Phase I 40 I' ( (.)111111LinitVI ) The Retail Recruiting System • ...„ Project Overview Town of Oro Valley This map depicts the locations of the three retail sites that have been evaluated in Phase I. J ( \ 1 , City Limits ' 89 i - ---,,,- .: * Site 1 r• - - e , _ - ..2 , ,,,. ,, Site 2 • I. I.T_ IL V ii Site 3 / ..... v -- Catalina Shopping Centers in , „ii'-' PE , 1 i qW GLA chousands / C \ ? ,„*- k l' - 7in '1, •. - a -6' I \ 1 Ia p. 11 ''>‘ it, / t I r ". *A , Tangerine Rd& L ---- ITT— Tor- , rtolitait. Ofo Valley Oracle Rd -I_ m n'al NI = __ , 4 . A ara ! . •,. 111.13E - -.L..' '.- • •1171•17 I, ' WIN ,•.,,,,7---. _._:._: .'''- Pri OZ.,,.. .. --I'•....aii,g :-.9t TA , riis - ...of X aNri,/ ' '''w1;f4 .. "--,t., --q r; IlirlAte.•:-.1 70-."416. Acir3b,es--.31.-di.— riaL.gia7 IP d&Oracle Rd .7, •-1 JO , \N *-'2.411 Alt --m'''4.1 Om' • - :, ,• 4,4, ,., , de - Ea-Cholla Rd*Ina-Rd i . • .....-,1 i AI.I4 lip MilA V a m es, '.i, -All;) 1 0 tell-4P, , .0 s- • , , . gieWitliiia, TR..A,01,,,Adpe• i r I , • . & ri ,- ft • ....---.M11.1 A gifi 'N'1411111111143."4"1 ' -Pt"- VP -4#11 :N tlill • i6 jit_ 1 5-, i P "I-Sot.414.101,,w Ai illOU/1 Oa ww--' - -‘-' L. ,--.1---r:r- •._.''' *V•iiN Alcir,..4, liri 0 ill,„:„.\ A — .11_ — ..!_ _, ,. , -R--. ' g I 0 ilk/ (A Catalina Foothills olik11q,., [ ---, , i---' 7 k.,. F_lowing.,, .,!.,,s:-..-. ',,,iiN .. , , , -, •A A or j t , .' ,:ii- ' ---T,_III , d„,:. , awilli, im, r7--e,--Erie .,-.'....4,.,... • 9P1T1M, at'elleAkinitliffigion k •'' Mar../419 " "6.4/ .. VOITari Mnirtnliggfigiraiiii...:,:. Miles frdell erinehl--,2.4:1.11ff, :kt• '''"IFINI _nLI "__ rI1"daluir7ttAliriter..=141Ph.ii k,.....,,,, 3'm 119,1 itifill'itatia....bbEMirrjrerf,,,• 17.. -'-4, ,04,,1,.. 3 --7-v•1. o-,u .i:12- lar-IlviiiiRiliWzatil:At „„L:7op ,v..v II%..4.11pir.-,1,..61 ,„ilD..p.,mi-geelgv-14404,. .wi.,, ,tis.,_..,.1.-t,-.--F,. 'NO,':-Ai-fvrajak1 ' murlittlitim:::::1111:51.iballigipilat,„413.401W, "igik,n1 ,, ..., , ..- 4-, .4,.. --,--,---,,, MN gIT3'....."4•::::''lir .,.. „.r.r.......--3.. .....,, , Voir 4116; tow ri...; c Oro Valley, AZ—Phase 1 _) viik.0, On-11MM VII) 1 he Retail Recruiting System Executive Summary Findings The Buxton company examined three retail sites in the Town of Oro Valley based upon the potential of each as a retail location. The following sections of this report details our conclusions. Site 1, Tangerine Road & Oracle Road, is located on the eastern border of Oro Valley's city limits, Retailers at this site are in an excellent position for maximum exposure and accessibility given the high daily traffic counts on Oracle Road. A 15-minute drive time trade area was determined suitable based on the site's road accessibility, geographic barriers, positioning relative to other neighboring communities, and current competitive retail environment. The trade area captures most of Oro Valley's city limits, but also extends north capturing a high percentage of households in the town of Catalina. The trade area also extends south towards Tucson, but stops short of Tucson's major retail area. Of the three sites, site 1 exhibits the most significant household segmentation and demographic profile. A 15-Minute trade area captures nearly 21,000 households and 51,000 people. Households within the trade area exhibit excellent segmentation with just over fifty percent falling into more affluent segments 1-10. The trade area also exhibits an exceptionally high population growth rate, with rates just over one-hundred percent, and the population more than doubling in the last 10 years. Site 2, located at Magee Road & Oracle Road, is just south of Oro Valley's current city limits. Like site 1, retailers will benefit from the outstanding visibility and traffic volumes that Oracle Rd provides. A 7-minute drive time trade area was determined suitable based on the site's road accessibility, geographic barriers, positioning relative to other neighboring communities, and current competitive retail environment. The trade area for site 2 taps into older, denser, and more established areas of northern Tucson compared to site 1. As a result growth rates are significantly lower and segmentation is less affluent. Site 3, located at La Cholla Road& Ina Road, is only few miles southwest of site 2. A 7- minute drive time trade area was also determined suitable for site 3, for similar reasons used to establish site's 2's trade area. As a result, sites 2 and 3 shared similar characteristics in segmentation and demographics. Site 3's trade area extends south into of Tucson. Consequently, there is a considerable household density and subsequent existing retail presence in site 3's trade area. The Tucson Mall, a 1.3 million square foot retail center, is located approximately 4 miles southeast. However, while the local retail landscape provides a competitive environment for site 3, opportunity still exists as long as site 3 focuses on a unique retail mix that differentiates it from the surrounding retail. The abundance of nearby retail can then serve as an attraction for shoppers. 4t; Oro Valley, AZ-Phase 1 46. 4 41110 44-s: Community 1 he Retali Recruiting System Recommendation The Buxton company's analysis reveals that site 1 presents Oro Valley with the best opportunity to ain the interest of retailers, while accomplishing its retail sales tax goals. g Site 1 is preferred for Phase II because it is likely to be the best site for matching retailers given its excellent trade area coverage, solid household segmentation, and exceptional growth. Moreoever, it seems that site 1's trade area best captures and represents the character of Oro Valley. The opportunity to establish retailers and restaurants at this location would be a decision that would truly reflect the preferences and needs of residents of Oro Valley now and in the future. RECOMMENDED FOR PHASE II: SITE 1 —TANGERINE ROAD & ORACLE ROAD 410 • • S S S S S S S S S S S i Valley, Oro AZ—Phase I 5 S COMMLIII I t //) I he Retail Recruiting System Retail Site Comparison Trade Area Segmentation Each household in the U.S. can be described by one of the 50 segments, based upon its consumer habits and spending patterns. This graph depicts the segments, by percent of total households, that comprise the trade area for each retail site. Segmentation is important to retailers and is therefore a variable in our assessment of Oro Valley's retail potential. A segment that represents at least five percent of a trade area is classified as a dominant segment. The dominant segments shared among Oro Valley's retail site trade areas are segments 10 (Home Sweet Home), 15 (Great Beginnings) and 23 (Settled In). Descriptions for all segments are located in the Methodology section of this report. Oro Valley,AZ Retail Site Trade Area Comparison Site 1 ®Site 2 0 Site 3 25 21) • . _ I5 a I to - - . __ _ _ . _ _ _ _ ] j � 01,—ft L LIR il—ALLL_,16_,Alfl, I 2 1 4 5 6 7 9 9 II) II 12 II 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 10 31 12 13 14 15 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 4; 44 45 46 47 40 49 50 Segment Trade Area Statistics with Trade Area Rank Residential Population Household Average PropertyTraffic Site Population Income Growth Count Value .............. .. ....... Site 1 50,944 (2) 102.29% (1) 20,874 (2) $74,077 (1) $191,839 (1) 43,400 (2) Site 2 34,493 3) 21.90% (3) 15,477 (3) $70,149 (2) $178,379 (2) 46,700 (1) Site 3 68,042 (1) 23.83% (2) 27,479 (1) $62,744 (3) $137,434 (3) 36, 977 (3) Oro Valley, AZ----Phase I 6 v�Ir Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Analysis Geography: ()i.) \a l 1 e,. 1 f DEMOGRAPHIC DETAIL, Page 1 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 15-Minutes 7-Minutes 7-Minutes POPULATION 2007 PROJECTION 58,700 36,952 73,216 2002 ESTIMATE 50,944 34,493 68,042 2000 CENSUS 47,785 33,538 66,021 1990 CENSUS 23,623 27,512 53,314 GROWTH 1990-2000 102.29% 21.90% 23.83% HOUSEHOLDS 2007 PROJECTION 24,265 17,046 30,153 2002 ESTIMATE 20,874 15,477 27,479 2000 CENSUS 19,500 14,871 26,450 1990 CENSUS 9,331 11,551 20,321 GROWTH 1990-2000 108.98% 28.75% 30.16% 2002 POPULATION BY RACE&ORIGIN 50,944 34,493 68,042 WHITE 91.75% 90.82% 87.23% BLACK 0.94% 1.48% 1.56% ASIAN&PACIFIC ISLANDER 1.73% 2.25% 2.09% OTHER RACES 5.59% 5.45% 9.11% SPANISH ORIGIN 10.55% 10.59% 16.24% 2002 HISPANIC RACE BASE 5,376 3,654 11,048 WHITE 60.94% 63.91% 56.49% BLACK 0.44% 0.76% 0.51% ASIAN 0.59% 0.48% 0.43% OTHER 38.03% 34.86% 42.56% 1990 HISPANIC POPULATION BY TYPE NOT OF HISPANIC ORIGIN 90.89% 91.76% 88.84% MEXICAN 7.97% 6.75% 9.62% PUERTO RICAN 0.16% 0.25% 0.24% CUBAN 0.08% 0.10% 0.06% OTHER HISPANIC 0.91% 1.14% 1.24% 2002 EST.POPULATION BY SEX MALE 48.35% 47.20% 47.80% FEMALE 51.65% 52.80% 52.20% 10/31/2003 0 2003,the Buxton®company},Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. CommunitylD Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Analysis Geography: Oro N.a 1 I e . AZ DEMOGRAPHIC DETAIL, Page 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 2002 EST.HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME 20,874 15,477 27,479 $150,000 OR MORE 6.62% 6.53% 3.37% $100,000 TO$149,999 10.18% 7.97% 6.52% $75,000 TO$99,999 15.31% 14.37% 13.43% $50,000 TO$74,999 24.76% 22.56% 25.81% $35,000 TO$49,999 16.14% 17.26% 19.02% $25,000 TO$34,999 11.05% 12.46% 12.99% $ 15,000 TO$24,999 8.41% 10.02% 10.40% $5,000 TO$15,000 5.84% 6.97% 6.66% UNDER$5,000 1.71% 1.85% 1.79% 2002 EST.AVERAGE HH INCOME $74,077 $70,149 $62,744 2002 EST.MEDIAN HH INCOME $56,928 $51,589 $49,313 2002 EST. INCOME PER CAPITA $31,284 $33,048 $26,378 1990 POPULATION BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 87.19% 83.89% 86.12% NON FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 12.02% 15.70% 13.01% GROUP QUARTERS 0.79% 0.41% 0.86% MARITAL STATUS PERSONS 15+ SINGLE MALE 10.13% 11.15% 11.10% SINGLE FEMALE 8.10% 9.68% 9.25% MARRIED 66.34% 60.98% 61.43% PREVIOUSLY MARRIED MALE 4.70% 5.08% 5.40% PREVIOUSLY MARRIED FEMALE 10.74% 13.12% 12.82% 1990 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE SINGLE MALE 8.10% 9.56% 8.52% SINGLE FEMALE 12.98% 16.91% 14.11% MARRIED COUPLE 65.73% 58.20% 60.44% OTHER FAMILY-MALE HEAD 2.25% 2.39% 2.77% OTHER FAMILY-FEMALE HEAD 6.61% 7.96% 9.03% NON FAMILY-MALE HEAD 2.48% 2.78% 3.00% NON FAMILY-FEMALE HEAD 1.84% 2.19% 2.13% HHOLDS BY AGE BY POVERTY STATUS 9,323 11,511 20,305 ABOVE POVERTY UNDER AGE 65 66.98% 68.02% 73.50% ABOVE POVERTY AGE 65+ 26.23% 24.95% 19.67% BELOW POVERTY UNDER AGE 65 5.26% 5.49% 5.47% BELOW POVERTY AGE 65 + 1.54% 1.53% 1.37% 10/31/2003 ©2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. CommunitylD Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Anall•sis Geography: ort t \aIle , k l DEMOGRAPHIC DETAIL, Page 3 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 2002 EST.POPULATION BY AGE 50,944 34,493 68,042 UNDER 5 YEARS 4.72% 4.21% 5.79% 5 TO 9 YEARS 5.76% 4.85% 6.43% 10 TO 14 YEARS 7.06% 5.93% 7.30% 15 TO 17 YEARS 4.34% 4.09% 4.59% 18 TO 20 YEARS 2.68% 3.38% 3.53% 21 TO 24 YEARS 2.77% 4.98% 4.75% 25 TO 29 YEARS 3.62% 5.45% 5.92% 30 TO 34 YEARS 4.50% 4.78% 6.34% 35 TO 39 YEARS 6.29% 5.47% 7.03% 40 TO 49 YEARS 16.27% 15.94% 16.46% 50 TO 59 YEARS 14.88% 15.46% 12.84% 60 TO 64 YEARS 5.95% 5.02% 3.92% 65 TO 69 YEARS 6.17% 4.76% 3.57% 70 TO 74 YEARS 5.82% 4.52% 3.35% 75+YEARS 9.17% 11.18% 8.18% MEDIAN AGE 45.07 44.67 38.80 POPULATION ENROLLED IN SCHOOL 6,083 7,215 14,723 PUBLIC PRE-PRIMARY 2.61% 3.39% 3.40% PRIVATE PRE-PRIMARY 3.03% 3.53% 4.03% PUBLIC ELEM/HIGH 64.64% 55.80% 62.28% PRIVATE ELEM/HIGH 3.12% 4.02% 3.73% ENROLLED IN COLLEGE 26.60% 33.26% 26.56% POPULATION(25+)BY EDUCATION LEVEL 16,373 19,247 34,909 ELEMENTARY(0-8) 3.31% 2.52% 3.22% SOME HIGH SCHOOL(9-11) 6.82% 6.01% 8.21% HIGH SCHOOL GRAD.(12) 24.77% 21.44% 24.96% SOME COLLEGE(13-15) 26.75% 27.49% 29.06% ASSOCIATES DEGREE 7.35% 7.11% 7.86% BACHELORS DEGREE 19.32% 20.54% 16.79% GRADUATE DEGREE 11.68% 14.89% 9.90% POPULATION BY URBAN VS.RURAL URBAN 94.32% 97.78% 98.85% RURAL 5.68% 2.22% 1.15% 10/31/2003 ©2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. Community/D Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Anall•sis Geography: ort► \a I I 0,,. \1 DEMOGRAPHIC DETAIL, Page 4 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 POPULATION 16+BY OCCUPATION 10,207 12,964 25,383 EXECUTIVE AND MANAGERIAL 15.41% 15.77% 14.24% PROFESSIONAL SPECIALTY 19.52% 22.99% 16.97% TECHNICAL SUPPORT 4.23% 3.83% 4.98% SALES 16.66% 16.84% 14.72% ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT 11.90% 12.71% 14.66% SERVICE: PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD 0.45% 0.13% 0.15% SERVICE: PROTECTIVE 2.87% 2.06% 2.53% SERVICE:OTHER 8.36% 9.94% 10.45% FARMING FORESTRY &FISHING 1.50% 0.89% 1.06% PRECISION PRODUCT.&CRAFT 11.58% 8.41% 11.43% MACHINE OPERATOR 2.74% 2.34% 2.99% TRANS.AND MATERIAL MOVING 2.60% 2.17% 3.61% LABORERS 2.19% 1.92% 2.24% FEMALES 16+WITH CHILDREN 0-17 9,752 12,056 21,562 WORKING WITH CHILD<6 3.54% 3.84% 5.30% NOT WORKING WITH CHILD<6 0.45% 0.30% 0.27% NOT IN LABOR FORCE WITH CHILD<6 2.63% 2.04% 3.16% WORKING WITH CHILD 6-17 13.84% 11.69% 14.16% NOT WORKING WITH CHILD 6-17 0.64% 0.52% 0.50% NOT IN LAB. FORCE WITH CHILD 6-17 4.25% 3.97% 4.43% WORKING WITH CHILD 0-5&6-18 2.01% 1.89% 3.80% NOT WORKING WITH CHILD 0-5 &6-18 0.22% 0.16% 0.31% NOT IN LAB. FORCE W/CHILD 0-5 &6-18 2.92% 2.25% 2.70% WORKING WITH NO CHILDREN 27.18% 33.56% 32.00% NOT WORKING WITH NO CHILDREN 1.55% 1.60% 1.88% NOT IN LAB. FORCE WITH NO CHILD. 40.76% 38.19% 31.49% 1990 OWNER OCCUPIED PROPERTY VALUES UNDER$25,000 0.04% 0.02% 0.05% $25,000 TO$49,999 0.11% 0.21% 0.24% $50,000 TO$74,999 0.50% 0.67% 1.83% $75,000 TO$99,999 2.59% 4.68% 13.45% $100,000 TO$149,999 22.89% 27.93% 45.97% $150,000 TO$199,999 28.52% 29.07% 21.30% $200,000 TO$299,999 33.12% 24.82% 13.20% $300,000 TO$399,999 8.40% 7.01% 2.25% $400,000 TO$499,999 2.22% 2.61% 0.67% $500,000+ 1.62% 2.98% 1.04% MEDIAN PROPERTY VALUE $191,839 $178,379 $137,434 10/31/2003 O 2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. Community/D" tito Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas C Analysis Geography: Oro Valley,AZ IP • POPULATION, RACE, & AGE, Page 5 s • COMPARATIVE POPULATION GROWTH 0 SITE I ®SITE 2 ®SITE 3 • O 120% III100% s 80% 60% • 40%IP , 20% Ill 1 0% : iiiiminailim. _. , , ____ • [ 2002- 2007 (PROJ.) 2000- 2002 (EsT) 1990- 2000(CENsus) a 2002 POPULATION BY RACE OSITE I SITE 2 MISITE 3 IP i WHITE BLACK 11 ASIAN/PAC. ISL. 11 OTHER !Illirill. HISPANIC* 1 - � � • 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2002 EST. POPULATION BY AGE 11:1SiTE I R SITE 2 •SITE 3 I 8% I 6% a r 14% 12% - r 0% 8% • , 6°/o i r l IEIrLdlIf [. II [di+ + + l 0-4 i C 1 5-1 7 19 20 21 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 49 50 59 60 64 65 69 O-74 ,• SOURCE: 2000 CENSUS&UPDATES I, is., IP 2003 the Buxton®company.Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,A11 Rights Reserved. Community/D 10/31/2003 � . • 1111 tar Demographi•cs Drive Time Trade Areas Analysis Geography: Oro Valley,AZ . ,... IP HOUSEHOLDS, MARITAL STATUS, & PROPERTY VALUES, Page 6 1990 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE . i i 1 + i I SITE 3Laiiiiiimmiiiiiiirat jaiiiii,‘, II 4aMmii Ilii I I f 1 i i SITE 2I tip1 i -7- � • . , i _.• II SITE • . O 1 1 t t } 1 0 0 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 O/0 1 0/0 1 00/o 113 SINGLE MALEOSINGLE FEMALE ®MARRIED COUPLE in SINGLE PARENT FAMILY ❑NON-FAMILY MARITAL STATUS(AGE 1 5+) 1990 OWNER-OCCUPIED PROPERTY VALUES ®SINGLE MALE 0 SINGLE FEMALE 13 MARRIED 0 PREV. MARRIED ®UNDER$50.000 D$50.000 To$99,999 D$1 00.000 ro$1 99.999 0$200,000+ 100% j i 00/0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% + I- t i I 80% - I i 0.15% 1 3.09% SITE I 51.41% 0 60/o 45.35% 0.23% 40% - 5.35% SITE 2 57.00% I, w_" 37.42% 20% - ra": 1%Orii , 1 0.29% I 1 5.29% O% -- - i i I SITE 3 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 67.2 7% I 7.I 5% (SOURCE: 2000 CENSUS&UPDATES) I... k I 10/31/2003 ©2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. CommunitylD Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Analysis Geography: Oro Valley,AZ INCOME & OCCUPATION, Page 7 2002 ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME 0 SITE I ®SITE 2 ®SITE 3 30% � 20%111 15% 11 II t • I 10% 5% EL All ocyo I [111 11 , MIL , $1 50.000 OR 100.000 TO $75.000 TO $50.000 TO $35,000 TO $25.000 TO $1 5.000 TO $5.000 TO UNDER$5 000 MORE $1 49.999 $99.999 $74 999 $49.999 $34 999 $24,999 $1 5.000 SOURCE: 2000 CENSUS&UPDATES POPULATION 16+ BY OCCUPATION r❑SITE I 11SITE 2 U SITE 3 25% 20% O% _ F EXECUTIVE/MANAGERIAL PROF.SPECIALTY TECHNICAL SUPPORT SALES ADMIN. SUPPORT POPULATION 16+ BY OCCUPATION - CONTINUED LPSTE 111 SITE 2 SITE 3 I 4% I 2% I 0% 8% 6% , 4% 2% Mr) akar 00,0 SERVICE FARMING FISHING PRECISION PROD./CRAFT MACHINE OPERATOR TRANSPMOVING LABORERS IOW 10/31/2003 0 2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. CommunityID 110 Demographics Drive Time Trade Areas Analysis Geography: Oro Valley,AZ Mr h,e ED UCA TION, Page 8 PERCENTAGE OF ADULT POPULATION (25+) BY EDUCATION LEVEL O SITE I ['SITE 2 'SITE 3 GRADUATE DEGREE BACHELORS DEGREE •• ASSOCIATES DEGREE t- I• I SOME COLLEGE ' 1 I I 1 I I HIGH SCHOOL GRAD I � 1 SOME HIGH SCHOOL ELEMENTARY _ _ 1 __ 0% 5% I 0% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% • • f • S • • • S S i • • ID S s • s • S 411, 10/31/2003 03 Q 2003,the Buxton®company,Ft.Worth,TX 1-888-228-9866,All Rights Reserved. CommunityjD 111 S • ...,. .„ ,fr.. - ':.?„,, Community/I) I he Retail Recruiting System :t^ Retail Site 1 Introduction Site 1 is at the intersection of Tangerine Rd and Oracle Rd. The site is situated on the eastern border of Oro Valley's city limits. The map below depicts the trade area for Retail Site 1. The area consists of a 15-minute drive time polygon, determined by the Buxton company's proprietary drive-time technology. There are an estimated 20,874 households that fall within this trade area. Please refer to the Methodology section for details on our drive-time technology. 1 3 ySite 1 ;� •'� � � - ( ;t6 IIITrade Area 1 r A ,l Shopping Centers Or` � -\ GLA in thruhand- K _ _ 0 , _ (Al 111L---12,1, , -, .. Ni,l4rf- w - , a rf.rt.f a _ 1 i = r 3 mir Miles i o 1 2 Catalina f --\s _ ''L-147 ' !IP ( . J'ik%,,., - - -- 1 \ .)49 ' , . 2 410.11 c lif, * , (• . , \ \.. -: ,-41- i.4 't -WO 0.,),.$. 14,, r i-/7 0 . 't1-, ,p, i 4111) !I ( - ,4', _ , - /_ )n °L. %1, , • D u.a l - -.--LW Moore Rdr -I), r :-7 7- 1_, 1.1 t 0 p ;L ' w=Tan Brine Rd 3 r��` Tange� rine Rd& 0 `" -}E-- -Q,ro Valley OraCle Rd blii N rcrnadI 1111P '12 CY - f / r 12, 1111 _- -'Marana_ ■fly O L / -ID l'il . _�■- 1.- W Lambert Ln l.z .,,‘����� l � __p Bi 10.ei(rr--,'\ • . � .,„ I 7 — 0 �` d �riiM6 -r� 40 aV Film:1r . 4 4 5-:31, I Hz--I__ ;'.,...4 Ifirmmil i, „W Har,?. rli urRd� i,. . l is40 �� a _o. 0.,1_1.:_k Yom'f .,,,,m,---1P .�. — 'P 4 MAI. ., 1 W Ma ee_RdC .j' ' ir-i �� a �4CáSaS Adobes- f•r�'?fl* a-7E iki „,dim :4 mai,E 4 n .W."0 i —1 rt. ,--. �k i=ll .i •F, rt_, �. �� f r \ IiI:i 1° -- li 41•.litikgrirkiir%lie—Wikf* ir'firetNi" am ` �'� I%ffdeiroAspixd, gff. . 1, Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I • (1/4, ommuiilI \ `. tr' the Retail Recruiting System Retail Site 1 15-Minute Trade Area Segmentation Each household in the U.S. can be described by one of the 50 segments, based upon its consumer habits and spending patterns. This graph depicts segments by percent of total households that compromise the trade area for Retail Site 1. A segment that represents at least five percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. The chart at the bottom of this page provides household counts and indicates the percent of all households in the trade area that are classified in each dominant segment. The next page provides a brief description of dominant segments. The methodology section of this report includes a full description of each dominant segment. Oro Valley,AZ 20,874 Households Retail Site I 15-Minute Trade Area 3(1 25 20 bO AVIP 15 7 i L F y ; v pI[ 10 Amoy 1 I ` j t 1 2 3 4 5 6 ' H 9 10 Il 12 13 14 15 16 17 (0 19 20 21 2222 23 24 25 26 2,24 29 30 31 32 33 14 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 36 47 44 49 50 Segments Dominant % Of All Segments Description Households Households 4 Mid-Life Success 3,089 14.8% 7 Comfortable Times 1,297 6.2% 8 Movers and Shakers 1,413 6.8% 10 Home Sweet Home 5,204 24.9% N"" 15 Great Beginnings 1,324 6.3% 20 Secure Adults 2,208 10.6% 23 Settled In 1,704 8.2% �► Oro Valley, AZ---Phase I g C ., s• .. 1 1 I n I he Retail Recruiting System ;. Retail Site 1 Dominant Segment Descriptions 4 MID-LIFE SUCCESS — These households have very high incomes and own their suburban homes, whose value is two-and-a-half times the national average. They work in white-collar occupations—such as sales, use discount brokers to purchase stocks, and stay informed by reading news and travel magazines. 7 COMFORTABLE TIMES — These are typically high-income households, with slightly older than average married couples or families. They typically live in the suburbs, own their home, have a high level of education, and work in white-collar occupations. They are very civic minded, belonging to veteran's clubs, contributing to public broadcasting, and writing to elected officials. 8 MOVERS AND SHAKERS — Typically, these households contain employed singles and couples with no children. They live in the suburbs and have high incomes and advanced educations. Members of this segment are likely to visit museums and attend live theater. Movers and Shakers are active Internet users who shop, bank, and make purchases online. 10 HOME SWEET HOME — Typically married couples with few, if any, children living in the home, these households have above average incomes, own their homes, and are primarily concentrated in the suburbs. This segment tends to have a great deal invested in their homes and is likely to lease a vehicle. 15 GREAT BEGINNINGS — These households typically consist of one or two young adults who reside in urban and suburban areas. This segment is likely to own a Honda and purchase gasoline using a debit card. They also tend to listen to modern rock radio stations and read weekly news and entertainment magazines. 20 SECURE ADULTS — This segment's population consists primarily of older singles and couples without children who live in the suburbs. They are more likely to be members of fraternal orders, civic organizations, or veteran's clubs. Many Secure Adults read mature market magazines, watch prime-time television, and prefer Oldsmobile and Buick automobiles. 23 SETTLED IN — These households consist primarily of older couples or singles without children. They live in suburban areas and have slightly below average incomes. They like to stay active and enjoy doing things themselves, including minor home improvements and automobile oil changes. Their media choices are often home and garden oriented. L Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I C C C - tV/1 ) :, - ', 1 he Retail Recruiting System '....or:,. Retail Site 1 Average Daily Traffic Counts Traffic counts in and around Tangerine Rd & Oracle Rd range from 2,300 and 43,400 on Oracle Rd. \ , 1 ', /\)._,, ,K,\\\\\.), ----:-N i' _, i \ Site 1 r- --,, 5,100 -#.,,.. Traffic Count \ , . & / , "r Shopping Centers 'SLA in thousands % 0 4,, C __, • ) (. 3,800 ! ."'s — 89 o o•\ _,_, , C Miles 0 0.5 1 a. ---- 26,300 1 Qb / 1 410 / 4,9110 sib 410 Mt L� �cc / f _ 44, • 11 — y o / • N 2.300 \O E Tangerine Rd ', V_ ��— - Tangenne Rd&Oracle Rd • A_ l \ .1,' ' i -. - 411 --- ct) 4-- ,_ -- f ——• W _ �� . 2 lZ �'�� Palisades Rd— Ga/ - I _�_--3;8011-- ---J—F _ J ___ 1111, 3,U1}043.lo ,,,,,,,,,,,--- - //'411 ' 9,2(}11 1110 ,,,:r ._J \'‘f,% s0 i�7- Sr . 16.GOI) / O it',,V, 1,80(.1(by- ,xf,i,_. / 7,_ * > w:,:4,3,,' , -----Th fr *sr / -, <›-;1,'\ *Mr IOW 1101 trill1; Oro Valley, AZ—Phase 1 10 c Community/i) i s ♦ A ' i he Retail Recruiting System "r°zaoee ' Retail Site 1 15-Minute Trade Area Demographic Summary Figures shaded in indicate that Retail Site 1 ranks first for that category. Population Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 5 8,700 3 6,952 73,216 2002 Estimate 50,944 34,493 68,042 2000 Census 47,785 33,538 66,021 1990 Census 23,623 27,512 53,314 Growth from 1990-2000 102.29% 21.90% 23.83% Households Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 24,265 17,046 30,153 2002 Estimate 20,874 15,477 27,479 2000 Census 19,500 14,871 26,450 1990 Census 9,331 11,551 20,321 Growth from 1990 - 2000 108.98% 28.75% 30.16% Income Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Average Household Income $74,077 $70,149 $62,744 2002 Median Household Income $56,928 $51,589 $49,313 .; 2002 Per Capita Income $31,284 $33,048 $26,378 Property Value Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Median Property Value $191,839 $178,379 $137,434 Traffic Count Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 OP Vehicles Per Day 43,400 46,700 36,977 410 ark; Oro Valley, AZ-Phase I 11 Retail Trade Potential Site 1,Oro Valley,Arizona Consumer Variable-Major Categories Total Estimated Dollars Children's Apparel $14,244,723 Men's Apparel $19,017,033 Women's Apparel $29,379,199 Groceries $98,762,274 Alcohol $13,927,817 Restaurants and Bars $80,480,242 Tobacco Products $12,715,694 Home Improvement and Household Services $18,816,347 Furniture and Decor $34,111,988 Lawn and Garden $12,422,099 Automotive - Service and Maintenance $38,622,926 Automotive - Purchase, Lease and Rental $45,000,183 Fuel $29,951,855 Electronics and Appliances $34,754,176 Recreation $24,507,528 Entertainment $30,738,209 Other Retail $32,827,157 Other Services $27,606,611 Miscellaneous $367,570,233 TOTAL $965,456,294 the Buxton company 11/3/2003 Conimuni t\I li) $ , •., The Retail Recruiting System ` , Retail Site 2 Introduction Site 2 is at the intersection of Magee Rd & Oracle Rd just south of the city limits. The map below depicts the trade area for Retail Site 2. The area consists of a 7-minute drive time polygon, determined by the Buxton company's proprietary drive-time technology. There are an estimated 15,477 households that fall within this trade area. Please refer to the Methodology section for details on our drive-time technology. ,___.---4 1 V.:ij ir,/, V-,. . V..- y ) s C ' 'r. j Site 2 171-7-P ttfil 0 Trade Area ,...' Shopping Centers 7 ;,.�'- ��'0? /.I tit ir • G.A tr.thousands ro ...., IP ris i —•---- N . - I\ 77----7- Til ' a ‘ , .gz__ . .;^-1.1 ..1_5_ , -' R Miles r .Q! f m 0 0 o - _ / ' (- J 1 0 _____ .61----• ,y, ilia.._ alt .-- -Tr / ...I. , , --.IIY/- --j 7\ • s'afar ',_ _Air.. -_.A . ... -.... - ) 4. eiJ , 41110 /' 110 ''.-----(1-- z 6- _="_r_is --.: ' .----- � � , iiilli --c- � W Magee Rd _. "-_ - t ,•---r- -,c �` _ . Magee-Rd&Oracle Rd 0 �1L �gA Imo) , -- -_t_ J ,,--A, _, .1._. lift /P _ 7� .:...___,-itr ,..._,... ) ___ ,,_ J___ `n «'Casas Adobes 1 '" � raf E I,0 na Rd 4. .tom d. f3* . - Ili IL I" . i • iir. .p _1111 le 14 ---1.- - -- \ILA-, (I: 4 .1 , & . ._ t -,--te ' Ar i --. - 1Lci_ I-- .\ , 410 . , _ 1 4 _t _ .w II c ■ . _ r IF rd E Orange Grove Rd - /I 4 1110 c• i:-_,_ , , el_ji -. ---L_ li _ - r . li P , , ir /le . V i;d- drl,m 1,A/ _40 t, _______1,_ ,, I 1- '----i- , --;-, ! a -7 -: (,) ,-,-.-;44 - all i-- - (,:, 1-_- -„ / , 7- tjf - 1 / li "\,-__ ,, •, --,_.-_ Ll. ' . _ -A7 1 if giv , 1 \4 , 0. rlI ,_ raAi 1 • \ __ • io Talt.13 11-'1- \ ig ,N=___ 1 F '41 wi' 5 ?'-, \ I i I L� i / r'< --- --- liaowmg_Wzlis -ifil � ��- _ _�\iJ� �` � � (N} _71. ,,) / 3yL ' Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I 12 C off, r4, 40 Community!!) ip I he Retail Recruiting :system 1.t. Retail Site 2 7-Minute Trade Area Segmentation Each household in the U.S. can be described by one of the 50 segments, based upon its consumer habits and spending patterns. This graph depicts segments by percent of total households that compromise the trade area for Retail Site 2. A segment that represents at least five percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. The chart at the bottom of this page provides household counts and indicates the percent of all households in the trade area that are classified in each dominant segment. The next page provides a brief description of dominant segments. The methodology section of this report includes a full description of each dominant segment. Oro Valley,AZ 115,477 Households 1 Retail Site 2 7-Minute Trade Area .1. . , , , , , , err j IlJ S ' 2 3 4 S 6 7 K 9 I() II 12 11 14 15 16 17 IK 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2'=x 29 tU 11 12 11 14 17 1x 39 40 41 42 41 44 45 46 4'48 49 50 Segments Dominant % Of All Segments Description Households Households 4 Mid-Life Success 1,073 6.9% 8 Movers and Shakers 1,158 7.5% 10 Home Sweet Home 1,986 12.8% 12 A Good Step Forward 981 6.3% 15 Great Beginnings 3,403 22.0% 20 Secure Adults 1,146 7.4% 23 Settled In 2,167 14.0% 1,, 39 On Their Own 1,374 8.9% low „► 1 Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I • , b TCommunitvii) taw he Retail Recruiting System '� - •R Retail Site 2 Dominant Segment Descriptions 4 MID-LIFE SUCCESS — These households have very high incomes and own their suburban homes, whose value is two-and-a-half times the national average. They work in white-collar occupations—such as sales, use discount brokers to purchase stocks, and stay informed by reading news and travel magazines. 8 MOVERS AND SHAKERS — Typically, these households contain employed singles and couples with no children. They live in the suburbs and have high incomes and advanced educations. Members of this segment are likely to visit museums and attend live theater. Movers and Shakers are active Internet users who shop, bank, and make purchases online. 10 HOME SWEET HOME — Typically married couples with few, if any, children living in the home, these households have above average incomes, own their homes, and are primarily concentrated in the suburbs. This segment tends to have a great deal invested in their homes and is likely to lease a vehicle. 12 A GOOD STEP FORWARD —This segment's population is comprised primarily of 25 to 44 year olds living in one- or two-person, non-family households. They are concentrated in urban areas, rent their homes, and have above average household incomes. Members of this segment are travelers and enjoy going to movies. They use the Internet heavily when it comes to financial services. 15 GREAT BEGINNINGS — These households typically consist of one or two young adults who reside in urban and suburban areas. This segment is likely to own a Honda and purchase gasoline using a debit card. They also tend to listen to modern rock radio stations and read weekly news and entertainment magazines. 20 SECURE ADULTS — This segment's population consists primarily of older singles and couples without children who live in the suburbs. They are more likely to be members of fraternal orders, civic organizations, or veteran's clubs. Many Secure Adults read mature market magazines, watch prime-time television, and prefer Oldsmobile and Buick automobiles. 23 SETTLED IN — These households consist primarily of older couples or singles without children. They live in suburban areas and have slightly below average incomes. They like to stay active and enjoy doing things themselves, including minor home improvements and automobile oil changes. Their media choices are often home and garden oriented. c 14 y Oro Valley, AZ—Phase 1 C oniniUn itY/AO I he Retail Recruiting System � 39 ON THEIR OWN - This segment's population typically consists of seniors, with some young adults also present. They live primarily in renter-occupied housing located in urban or suburban areas, and rank high in owning a hatchback automobile and frequenting convenience stores. This segment is also very likely to have a Roth IRA and watch prime- time television. Oro Valley, AZ-Phase I 15 CommunitylD ! # + w 4 I he Retail Recruiting System c . •,ti-�r, • Retail Site 2 Average Daily Traffic Counts Traffic counts at this intersection range from 17,200 to 46,700 vehicles per day Site 2 i � 2.8)))) 'r.�7,51111 Traffic Count � 1 { , 7I Shopping Centers r_ `1, 1111 W Calle Concordia -t,1t18 I ' , (1 HI .,,.. -- ,,-, _ ..,, J , / 7-v- II ......7 ,/ - \ tii__--_- 2,,," - • -j'..1 T/4:/ ;.600 2,000 Miles lardy Rd ----- _' c7- ' i ____a_ 1 immi--- -immumum - -0 CT -/ 0 0.25 0.5 �_ -----o ii-1 �__ , 35,000- - - t.8))0L_1 W Sage St' -_ F9„«._ o �_. iiq - I\ fit, .,...__ _ ,_? ,___c_-__---ix. ,_7 . __,___ ii___ __ ,f L il - 1,317 ,..._.______ , c1'1188___-�W Magee R� 16;988-_ 17,20)) 2,58U l , _1_�_ - —� -; Magee-Rd-&-Oracle Rd o\- l 5ue \ 2 229r 823• / - / �-�' - ,L ( ho J-- 17.200_. 2,1161 J8 16,78()— '/47-- -/ - ---- _...\ c )..... j ” ' __ 7 i, C0asas Adobes 1__�`_��_ 3.449 / i . ' - - r-- ( --)-99-- ,,( .` c. '37,8))0 • 1 r 135.581) 37,900 E Ina Rd� 28,500 (110 ______________ __„„ ___ _ ck\,_ ,. ____,,--_i- - .,,. ,--,-- ________ 7.1., -I) '-: 7 L 41 \ L W.Chula Vista Rd -1` \ �-�� 1, 12,678 ,0 \ 26.9 \ 71_ _ E Chula'Vista Rd 6,000 E Rd 16. 88 \\--- 1_____Florence .. _ _ , . 'c-N i ------ -"Li \-, 2____, tycl-------r--,__ / /- \____.-W Los Altos Rd__-) ' -----:-- t-- I L_____� ii _ /- -- - L i 7] Pk - — _____YL )-- 20,881) — --17,188 f I4-11 . ( A / . /c . . / 117 i.780 ___I____-- -1 -I [---____. r- r. - r '7 T_____21-77-,(4 _ 4,—, - iftw ""` Oro Valley, AZ—Phase 1 16 • ID _,rp Community!! ) i he Retail Recruiting System ,,,; ,..• Retail Site 2 7-Minute Trade Area Demographic Summary Figures shaded in t=R EN indicate that Retail Site 2 ranks first for that category. Population Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 58,700 36,952 73,216 2002 Estimate 50,944 34,493 68,042 2000 Census 47,785 33,538 66,021 1990 Census 23,623 27,512 53,314 Growth from 1990-2000 102.29% 21.90% 23.83% Households Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 24,265 17,046 30,153 2002 Estimate 20,874 15,477 27,479 2000 Census 19,500 14,871 26,450 1990 Census 9,331 11,551 20,321 Growth from 1990 - 2000 108.98% 28.75% 30.16% Income Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Average Household Income $74,077 $70,149 $62,744 2002 Median Household Income $56,928 $51,589 $49,313 2002 Per Capita Income $31,284 $33,048 $26,378 410 41; Property Value Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Median Property Value $191,839 $178,379 $137,434 41;C Traffic Count Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 Vehicles Per Day 43,400 46,700 36,977 47;C C C �► 17 Oro Valley, AZ-Phase I Retail Trade Potential Site 2,Oro Valley,Arizona Consumer Variable-Major Categories Total Estimated Dollars Children's Apparel $9,825,469 Men's Apparel $13,413,969 Women's Apparel $20,770,730 Groceries $69,613,914 Alcohol $9,794,253 Restaurants and Bars $57,835,526 Tobacco Products $9,370,817 Home Improvement and Household Services $13,433,989 Furniture and Decor $24,184,322 Lawn and Garden $8,742,848 Automotive- Service and Maintenance $27,833,038 Automotive - Purchase, Lease and Rental $32,070,832 Fuel $21,626,520 Electronics and Appliances $25,071,996 Recreation $17,500,305 Entertainment $21,687,884 Other Retail $23,102,793 Other Services $19,620,861 Miscellaneous $265,719,812 TOTAL $691,219,878 the Buxton company 11/3/2003 the Retail Recruiting System Retail Site 3 Introduction Site 3 is at the intersection of La Cholla Rd & Ina Rd. The figure below depicts the trade area for Retail Site 3. The area consists of a 7-minute drive time polygon, determined by the Buxton company's proprietary drive-time technology. There are an estimated 27,479 households that fall within this trade area. Please refer to the Methodology section for details on our drive-time technology. -) ` 1 z.....,,^ -1 1 rI� Site 3 = ; ► - ) i..''° '' .I‘ [cJ Trade Area r' '�-,--- --- j:-j•! 11 , rI r Shopping Centers -r i 1 - 1-} ( , rl•. PP 9 ii _,: GLA n thousands .1 j i i liE j, fil,,, , r-D / ' '. - �p-- --• _._,_ _ _ /; •T.ortolita' l t`vi.., • ' ' � ';OroIValley } x Marana.. -•-- - �; II ' , } ---ai - ' - r(-W' It...'-->'' -' ' i \ 'l Miles i y r �-_.1 i ". -' C:1-11 0 0.5 1 - _ -,_ _ €I, / ;_-..."„,p; 'ELL 4. _ _. fl_, (,,i/ _ ill L e fd .„ 1 --' !'''q rtili _5 -:,'_•- 11 iviii: g -2- ,--...,--,,,,n,,, k_ :_ L._:-.1.":„,,, Ar-:,e.).r-:',,-A-i--,A.74-i ill . " ' V \ ,•,, , `. J�.'''_ Cawsip ESA fr"--* — ' gil Adobes , _ _ 10_, \__ 1; , 10 :AN7fillti 1-rt"=-_' ' r ----- ii \r/ 54 t - s'q - . _ --- , .-� ,+►,_/ .1 , _= _ ,�. h� � i�`-�` O 410 La�CoII RdJ&InaRdt ratlia r., 11,_ 1//3...4_ ,,- - Sk-7- ( •la .- - gla' 'AS 4baix., A i i't- Aar ;i O ,I ' 1 , ,.-44. *,,p..‘.i • ,q _ i , A. ocare a r" alt �^ u - �'' ',tll� f \ - !Catalina Foothills-- _ _ __� - � T � ,,)!'Catalina . , / .-� ;frij R., lily 6 �� l► • c J 1.. i , 3 ,ix p,,1 '- , ,.'"411 lT it. Flodving W_e_IIs''41.'k; , i e.7.11 - 460�? i , �` __.I, �It�-1 _ THE TUCSON'M'ALL I� tr. . .--i-• -,j,;-1',If ' •1 -ott •: d- ' V.i. Ir.. 1, --ell-' "d4( - .A . ..,43; , At:.`1, 0:,sr,,,,....., ii iiiii.mt ...- . Am r , a _ri.,. ., itika •" l t`;� ` WI � t• �' •r; 111 N �iiSR`1C I I � 1 • 1jr•••7�1■■:l ��':• 1111 C Itarlik -mtlittglitittrir -:._--,.., - , . g_IC C_ji) -,,. 1 � . .'•- Air0..,-' I,'"A 1 _.`!-':411 1111:'1 411•L1140■1�ilur'�i - - r �V0 f :� �� .iL:= s !_l==-■��1 fl ■■�I7��t ID1 � �. 17,It:t"1'4, FASEF...i lie,11l1;111!"''•dir.:Elifi----1111414.-01411111itit Iffier■1111 . l.lq Niel.Z rt • r■" .1111111 '19 il., _,), RIO,NUEVO SOUTH �;,� . EL CON � •_._; /' . _ . •L.� 1k�:1 im..1.iii.. M '.1.6,-,-.-4 1 ` `4. - 'i•tri■ = i• (-a hd,w�o����.,�3 . � �� � � i�.�.�� 1�;� I,Ji•�,1�'��-iiia'-"'�.. III / \ ` rr S fir ,F,' �..4"A:m h`J Vii:.. tr ll`f=atii 1l •{ .� r.:: Fri �ill• ��1;���� •,im • Tucson Estates =1 Biu spun min 4mai ==.a w:3 . „. -•;=,_'s .-In.= ;3- �At1;•, 1.„„,„,,,,`1 - =-- • t• ,, -7,. t_ ►rr- : i==411) �ll _ -,-N _ 1 viSouth•Tucson ``��I t._- C 3_7— - c c c ID Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I 1 8 4P0 4. d Eommunityll ) 4 4 4 a. I he Retail Recruiting System Retail Site 3 7-Minute Trade Area Segmentation Each household in the U.S. can be described by one of the 50 segments, based upon its consumer habits and spending patterns. This graph depicts segments by percent of total households that compromise the trade area for Retail Site 3. A segment that represents at least five percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. The chart at the bottom of this page provides household counts and indicates the percent of all households in the trade area that are classified in each dominant segment. The next page provides a brief description of dominant segments. The methodology section of this report includes a full description of each dominant segment. Oro Valley,AZ 27,479 Households Retail Site 3 7-Minute Trade area 20 • Ix 16 14 . I, 0 n„n. „ ,;_, n R ern OJ n I 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 9 10 11 12 11 14 15 16 I'' IS 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 29 30 31 12 33 34 35 36 3,30 19 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 40 49 50 Segments Dominant % Of All Segments Description Households Households 10 Home Sweet Home 3,948 14.4% 11 Family Ties 5,138 18.7% 15 Great Beginnings 4,215 15.3% 23 Settled In 2,124 7.7% 39 On Their Own 1,881 6.8% Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I 19 g 1 I he Retail Recruiting System � • Retail Site 3 Dominant Segment Descriptions 10 HOME SWEET HOME — Typically married couples with few, if any, children living in the home, these households have above average incomes, own their homes, and are primarily concentrated in the suburbs. This segment tends to have a great deal invested in their homes and is likely to lease a vehicle. 11 FAMILY TIES — This segment generally consists of families with children who live in suburban areas in the West. They have an above average median income and have attended at least some college. This segment likes to get out and go boating, camping, bowling, and in-line skating. They are heavily insured and use direct deposit. 15 GREAT BEGINNINGS — These households typically consist of one or two young adults who reside in urban and suburban areas. This segment is likely to own a Honda and purchase gasoline using a debit card. They also tend to listen to modem rock radio stations and read weekly news and entertainment magazines. 23 SETTLED IN — These households consist primarily of older couples or singles without children. They live in suburban areas and have slightly below average incomes. They like to stay active and enjoy doing things themselves, including minor home improvements and automobile oil changes. Their media choices are often home and garden oriented. 39 ON THEIR OWN — This segment's population typically consists of seniors, with some young adults also present. They live primarily in renter-occupied housing located in urban or suburban areas, and rank high in owning a hatchback automobile and frequenting convenience stores. This segment is also very likely to have a Roth IRA and watch prime- time television. } Oro Valley, AZ--Phase I 20 --,7 (4()Imilunitvil) The Retail Recruiting System • –,..,.. Retail Site 3 Average Daily Traffic Counts Traffic counts at this intersection range from 36,977 to 23,300 vehicles per day. I04 1 ' :_. , i , . 1 . 1 / i 1 1 1 , / 4,106 \\, i 1 --------4- f----,- 4- - — , ,..,--) 1775\ , - - Site 3 —--7-• , 'y r,.\ i ),(2(),(/)( ,,,___ 1 [— / -//\/ / ---- , {___, i—1 -i -..". Traffic Count f___ hii_c, __ t ---(---/ 17.i0ii-____}- -.-4-(t----q \_,, \ ,ij______ / I--, / --)- I-- • Shopping Centers (-) /\Ji t _-- V)/-- ) ---- t - . / ° 'Ci ' (1 C— ------ ' ( ii ti7 } ilt--9 I * / 12,600 / -'.-- -.) '•0.,-7-''\ i- t> .,'.' /- _____ --- I ' (1.1;1011-__ --,--4/-Magee Rdy- ib,9flo ...4.7-, 7____ Miles )---- 1 „ immi mmi....• — 21,500 _ ', 7'eP,,,C1 -- — LI_ — 2,229) 0025 0 5 r 12,883 ___,.___ _ i 41, , _ _,_ - . - I -- ------ L _ /9-,900 _________, Casas Adobes 2,061 6F', ___ _1,315\ ___ __ 1;...1.1 I_L:\\/- .......>/ ......_I 1,7.204! ,....... :1 ,k\,:.. 1 . . 7< - '--- C______ 1-- - 23,3110 7, 23,500 1,305- 7 (-/--/-L 3449 1 - •-'- 7 _,,1 / Ty .1- " -36,562 36,200 32.160 36,977 --14;"HI I ''''''1"" - W Ina/Rd--- ---37'8" le'''''**---- .I-7,m," • - efi..7-- ---- , -- T-T-- --- ---7,------1 --- - La Cholla Rd& Ina Rd ----/ i \, ,--' , 11 / r , __ __ / W Chula Vista Ria iio241___ . 1 i , k c . - 71 t IA- 12,945 ' --1 - -1 , rf k.t.• ,- i i 1 -i -1 i- _2)-- - - _ i -_----- ) Vx , __) 6- -,J-- A -- __ _ ,_, ,_ __ __L_=LI/ _ , ,---'-r-'43 7 - - 2 20,423 23,000 --1 28,340 -1 4.-------- 71 t-----i '--i/c) I - -1:---- ( ,-- ......„1 1N Orange Grove Rd' __20000 — -- 17.100 - _7- , [ f - -25,600 -J-Y1-- ---) \ - W Rudasill-Rd , 1--- \ ----i6-1781 I_1_f-- - r c ' 'II" filw I ' ' 7 i I- !, ,, _ f-11 , ,....*. j ,,-- , ---z ,47,___/- Las Lomitas Rd --- , ______ _1 „..., _ / , ____ v, \\, ,,. ---- '-, ..... ...., .4, ",...... ,...., ,...., Oro Valley, AZ—Phase 1 ) 1 IP t Commurntyl[) • s The Retail Recruiting System Retail Site 3 7-Minute Trade Area Demographic Summary Figures shaded in indicate that Retail Site 3 ranks first for that category. Population Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 58,700 36,952 73,216 2002 Estimate 50,944 34,493 68,042 2000 Census 47,785 33,538 66,021 1990 Census 23,623 27,512 53,314 Growth from 1990-2000 102.29% 21.90% 23.83% Households Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2007 Projection 24,265 17,046 30,153 2002 Estimate 20,874 15,477 27,479 2000 Census 19,500 14,871 26,450 1990 Census 9,331 11,551 20,321 Growth from 1990 - 2000 108.98% 28.75% 30.16% Income Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Average Household Income $74,077 $70,149 $62,744 2002 Median Household Income $56,928 $51,589 $49,313 2002 Per Capita Income $31,284 $33,048 $26,378 Property Value Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 2002 Median Property Value $191,839 $178,379 $137,434 Traffic Count Retail Site 1 Retail Site 2 Retail Site 3 Vehicles Per Day 43,400 46,700 36,977 C %sr (4;1; 22 Oro Valley, AZ-Phase I C Retail Trade Potential Site 3,Oro Valley,Arizona consumer Variable- Major categories Total Estimated Dollars Children's Apparel $18,754,325 pp Men's Apparel $24,174,913 Women's Apparel $37,351,386 Groceries $128,561,707 Alcohol $18,198,973 Restaurants and Bars $102,611,185 Tobacco Products $17,131,588 Home Improvement and Household Services $23,179,659 Furniture and Decor $41,892,144 Lawn and Garden $14,723,316 Automotive- Service and Maintenance $49,146,858 Automotive - Purchase, Lease and Rental $55,295,513 Fuel $37,822,259 Electronics and Appliances $44,248,237 Recreation $31,512,857 Entertainment $38,256,656 Other Retail $40,356,673 Other Services $34,054,833 Miscellaneous $461,471,703 TOTAL $1,218,744,785 the Buxton company 11/3/2003 9 II ..,,ii. :,„ Community!!) t, r • a ........... .. the Retail Recruiting System .r rtO.e Methodology: Household Segmentation Introduction CommunitylD uses the latest technologies, including extensive databases and geographic information systems, to analyze a community's retail potential. This section describes the research methodologies. Segmentation and Profiling Segmentation is a standardized method of classifying, sorting, and grouping households. Segmentation classifies households into distinct socioeconomic groups and measures customers according to lifestyle and behavior patterns. The CommunitylD process identifies and analyzes all the households in the community's drive-time trade area. Based on over 2,500 categories of lifestyle, purchase behavior and media reading and viewing habits, the households in your community are profiled to gain an understanding of the types of retailers that would be attracted to your community. Our in- house databases include traditional demographic data as well as the most current psychographic lifestyle information for over 112 million households and up to six individuals living in each of these households. The following map shows an example of households that have been assigned a segment. Segments • P.--ci_o _ / 01 el •1 I J a_6_ ::. a-• 0 u \ ..1 n. � 1 I P s 1 ill ,..) , ••, !• � • 1 I *15 411 )_...), 0 0 • • __-•. 016 a !. • • 1,,- .� 7 OP400 1 • • r /, • 1 8 o. • •• •-• 20 ilL __Ai :4 .40141,1k-- /-4i-_:-- .22 i-- *--- '''.• .25 • 0 _OP _.____,4 ,-- .26 • \III, 1\ % • • 028 • 144Pii____,.•••_ •-- •—r ---. •• -0 29 or• ) go 4,____r_,. • 1 \ • 030 3 -.\ •\\.)' Il•–•--•-•Ni e_. -3\ / iv, 0 31 • 4 , Viros\ •4•1110• 035 a \ a\4<\.• \ \\), \\44 . •._ N, — \ • __• • • •42 H_--- - 043 Households by Segment(example) Oro Valley, AZ--Phase 1 23 I 0``Ew 44r o, n.w POr .7 f ( ommunitylL) Mvif ♦ A t he Retail Recruiting System �' Methodology: Household Segmentation The advantage of this system is the ability to integrate behavioral, demographic, and, most importantly, consumer spending habits into models that describe any household in the United States. These models not only describe age, income, and education, but also the investments and purchases a household is likely to make. The customer segmentation system has been thoroughly tested and is well recognized by retailers, services and restaurants. CommunitylD identifies 50 customer segments nationally, ranging from "Upper Crust" at the highest level of the socioeconomic continuum to "Urban Singles" at the lowest level. The importance of customer segmentation to this study is that once the dominant segments of the area are known, this "profile" will be recognizable to any retailer in the country. For example, if it is discovered that segment one, "Upper Crust" appears with more frequency in the study site trade area than the national average, retailers who market to that segment may find the area attractive as a new location The figure below shows the household segmentation profile for the United States. • U.S.Segmentation Profile • to 9 ( *Z � fe . 4 t 3 - - - 1 n n 0nLEL__ n r� r�r� rr _. -r+�rs. �11.'�r_r'_r ra,11r ��11'�`l� _,_ r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Segment 41,-;C tor 4111 Oro Valley, AZ-Phase I 24 # *� fru i • omm un in y I he Retail Recruiting System `• � .;.•• Methodology: Drive-Time Trade Area Drive-Time People today shop by convenience, and measure distance in time, not miles. Therefore, CommunitylD utilizes a comprehensive database that can determine the time it takes to travel between any two points anywhere in the U.S. A custom drive-time trade area is determined for your zones based on how far customers are willing to travel to purchase various products and services. Traditional trade area methodology uses concentric rings around a retail site location. Concentric rings do not account for both human behavior and physical geography that may influence how and why a customer patronizes a retail area. Because of the limitations with concentric rings, the Buxton company has developed the technology required to define a trade area according to the amount of time it takes to drive to a location. A drive-time is the surrounding geography of a site where individuals in a household can reach that site within a set amount of time, such as 10-minutes. Unlike a circular trade area definition, a drive-time trade area can be irregularly shaped because of the particular configuration of the local road network, differences in maximum speeds on various roads, geographic barriers, etc. 10 • 40 S S • • • I Oro Valle AZ—Phase I 25 i y' • 110 4-, 410 Community/LI) a « I he Retail Recruiting System °'" •' Methodology: Retail Trade Potential CommunitylD uses the Consumer Facts database to determine the demand for products and services in your zones compared with demand in similar areas in Texas. The Consumer Facts database is built using information from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, Personal Consumption Expenditures, National Income and Product Accounts, and the Census of Retail Trade. The database provides current-year estimates of consumer spending on more than 400 different products and services. The estimates incorporate both regional differences in spending and future changes in demographics. Using the database, CommunitylD creates an index by zone that rates the 400 products and services. An index of 100 indicates that the zone has an average demand for that particular product or service. An index of greater than 100 indicates a higher than average demand, and an index of less than 100 indicates a lower than average demand. Refer to Appendix E for the consumer facts results for the zone trade areas under analysis. goo Sty sow Oro Valley, AZ—Phase I 26 .01 I U .U I I he Retail Recruiting System ;;• -ti.cr Methodology: Glossary Average Household Income — The total income of a geography divided by the number of households in the same geography. Cannibalization — A situation in which one retail site attracts (cannibalizes) customers from an existing retail site of the same retailer, reducing the existing store's customer base and sales. Simply, it is the loss of sales of an existing store when a new store location opens nearby. Demand — The amount spent on a commodity within a certain geography in relation to the average amount spent on that commodity. Drive-Time — The surrounding geography of a site where individuals in a household can reach that site within a set amount of time, such as ten minutes. Unlike a circular trade area definition, a drive-time trade area can be irregularly shaped because of the particular configuration of the local road network, differences in maximum speeds on various roads, geographic barriers, etc. Median Household Income — That income figure within a geography where half the incomes are higher and half are lower. Psychographics — Household-level lifestyle patterns, behavior, and purchasing habits of a particular consumer, as opposed to traditional demographics which provide general information about income, age and ethnicity. Retail Trade Potential — The estimate of total retail sales that could potentially exist within a geography based on the Survey of Retail Trade, demographics, and retail sales forecasts. Segmentation — A standardized method of classifying, sorting, and grouping households. CommunitylD identifies 50 customer segments nationally, ranging from "Upper Crust" at the highest level of the socioeconomic continuum to "Urban Singles" at the lowest level. Trade Area — The geography where the majority of a retailer's customers reside, usually expressed in distance or time. The zone trade area profile illustrates the households existing within the trade area for the zone. Typically, profiles of the trade area will illustrate a more representative picture of what segments are most likely to be core customer segments because it encompasses a larger area and number of households. Urbanicity — A method of classifying communities based on their level of urbanization and proximity to metro areas in urban counties. Zone — That area defined by community representatives as of interest for retail development or revitalization. The zone boundary tends to be geometric, or to follow the road network or natural features. 44. CI?C Oro Valley, AZ--Phase I IV • • • • • • • • • • t • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •